Five Biggest Questions:
1. Who should managers draft at QB, and will it matter?
2. Can Tyrone Tracy build off of his impressive rookie campaign?
3. Will Cam Skattebo outproduce Devin Singletary?
4. Is Wan'Dale Robinson a top-50 WR?
5. Are any receivers not named Nabers or Robinson draftable?
Some early-first-round draft picks *appear* to stem from a bit of desperation and/or franchise pressure. Yesterday I wrote about Tennessee taking Cam Ward #1. Yeah, they had to. And maybe he'll be a great NFL quarterback. But if they'd passed on him in favor of spending another year with Will Levis under center, there would have been more chaos in the streets of Nashville than at any time since corporate malfeasance closed down Minnie Pearl's chicken restaurants.
In the 2019 draft, the Giants selected Daniel Jones #6 overall. Eli Manning was on his last leg. Outside of Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray, there seemingly weren't any "sure things" at QB. The timing was terrible. The year before, picked Saquon Barkley #2 overall, because passing on him in favor of Sam Darnold or, say, Josh Allen, would have led to more chaos in the streets of East Rutherford, New Jersey than at any time since Bruce Springsteen stepped off his tour bus.
A franchise's fortunes--sometimes for several years beyond--can be traced back to a single draft pick. New York clearly liked Daniel Jones. But more than that, they needed to replace Eli. Had they waited one more year, Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert might have fallen into their lap. Instead, they enter the post-Jones era in fantasy chaos.
The interception-prone Jameis Winston probably squandered his best shot since 2019 at a full-time starting job. First-round rookie Jaxson Dart is in a "when, not if" situation. Russell Wilson will turn 37 later this year, but is coming off back-to-back starter-caliber campaigns. And the only holdover from last season, Tommy DeVito, has gone from spot starter to barely rosterable in six months.
For dynasty managers, it's a pretty simple situation when a rookie joins a depth chart headed by two declining talents. For those in re-draft leagues, it's a bit of a guessing game. Assuming New York remains at least one year away from playoff contention, we should see Dart take over. Wilson leads the pack with a QB32 ADP, just ahead of the rookie's QB33. Re-draft Superflex managers need to decide if they want help now, or if they have the bench space to add help for later.
The backfield consists of 2024 fifth-rounder Tyrone Tracy (RB35 ADP), fourth-round rookie Cam Skattebo (RB37), and lingering journeyman Devin Singletary (RB93). 40% of Tracy's fantasy production last year came through the air . . . where Skattebo excels. If the rookie carves out even a semi-meaningful role (5-7 touches per game), it would hurt Tracy fantasy managers who expect at least streaming production. For now, I'm fading all three running backs in the belief there won't be a consistent bell cow.
At wideout, Malik Nabers exceeded even some of the loftiest expectations, including mine. The only knock on him (not that it's a "knock") is his astronomical target share. He (170 looks) and Wan'Dale Robinson (140 looks) combined for 56% of the Giants' overall targets and 67% of the team's WR/TE targets. Entering Week 17, Nabers was averaging 11.8 looks per contest--what would have been the 16th most in an NFL season. Can he keep it up? And for that matter, can Robinson?
Their ADPs (WR5 and WR71, respectively) are similar to last preseason, when I pushed Robinson as one of fantasy's biggest WR bargains, ranking him 72 spots above his overall ADP. I made similar recommendations for other needlessly below-the-radar #2 WRs, including Rashod Bateman and Josh Downs, along with breakout stars Brian Thomas Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Robinson still fits the mold as a #2 WR with no strong competition from his team's #3, #4, etc. -- in other words, a bargain.
The rest of the receiving corps is a crapshoot. Years ago, Darius Slayton reportedly was on the chopping block. Now he's one of the Giants' longest-tenured players, building a reputation as a terrific spot-starter. Slayton went over 100 yards twice last season and is a good bet for a small handful of productive fantasy outings. Best Ballers know what to do.
With 2023 third-rounder Jalin Hyatt sputtering, and thanks to the addition of mere WR depth pieces, Theo Johnson is one of the team's biggest offseason fantasy winners. While that doesn't mean he's a near-lock to better his relatively anemic TE31 ADP, he turned a corner beginning last October, and I'm very comfortable adding him in leagues that draft top-28 tight ends.
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