Continuing with Day 19 of "32 in 32." But first a quick announcement:
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Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can C.J. Stroud get close to his rookie form?
2. Is Joe Mixon a safe top-24 RB?
3. Is Nick Chubb worth the investment?
4. Will Christian Kirk achieve fantasy relevance?
5. Can rookie Jayden Higgins become a weekly fantasy streamer?
Breakout rookie quarterbacks sometimes plummet back to earth in Year 2. The challenge is anticipating when it might happen. Sporting a QB5 ADP one year ago, C.J. Stroud looked primed to build off his impressive rookie campaign. Adding Stefon Diggs to an already impressive receiving corps seemed too good to be true.
Apparently, it was. Tank Dell missed three games. Nico Collins missed five. Stefon Diggs was sidelined for nine. Stroud absorbed 52 sacks en route to mediocrity. But not just any mediocrity. His 13.0 fantasy points per game was the lowest output for a 17-game starter since Trevor Lawrence in 2021.
Not surprisingly, the market has largely given up on him, as his ADP is QB19. As I've been writing all summer -- and really, for many years -- there are so many non-top-12 QBs who could realistically finish in the top 12. That's why there's no rush to draft a quarterback after the "elite" ones are off the board. And maybe this is a year when managers should fade quarterbacks regardless of whether, say, Josh Allen falls into your lap in the third round. The mostly "undraftable" Stroud is one reason why.
While Diggs is gone and Dell might miss the entire season, they still have Collins (WR7 ADP). They've also added Christian Kirk (WR59), who's tried to play the part of a #1 WR, but who's probably better suited as the #2 . . . or better yet, the #3, as Houston also added second-round rookie Jayden Higgins (WR52). Kirk and/or Higgins are severely undervalued in what should be an improved passing attack. Both are must-drafts in most leagues, and the rookie has the higher ceiling.
What can we make of Dalton Schultz? Entering last season he'd finished as the TE3, TE10, and TE10 in his three most recent campaigns. Inexplicably, despite a decimated receiving corps, Schultz was the overall TE20 and the TE28 in points per game despite collecting a pretty healthy 85 targets. So of course his current ADP is TE28. Interestingly, his red-zone looks dropped from 14 (2024) to seven. He entered last season averaging a broken tackle every 10.4 receptions, but failed to break any on 53 catches. Is the 29-year-old on a steep downside to his career? Probably not. So he's undervalued. The question is "how much?"
The Texans' RB corps hasn't been this loaded since Arian Foster roamed the backfield alone. Joe Mixon (RB18 ADP) played his best football in years in 2024, and reclamation project Nick Chubb (RB51) could be one injury away from calling it a career. Both guys are 29. I'm concerned. If Chubb shows some semblance of his former self, then Mixon probably will be a bust. If Chubb falters (entirely possible), then will Mixon reap the benefits?
Probably not. Houston snagged Woody Marks in the fourth round to make an immediate impact if he's ready. I think he'll be ready. While the 24-year-old rookie might not have the same longevity of many 21- and 22-year-old counterparts, he's one of the most accomplished pass-catching college RBs in perhaps decades, reeling in 261 receptions. Marks' RB84 ADP is only slightly ahead of Dameon Pierce's. But only Marks has a legit shot at top-50 numbers if things break right.
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