Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Baker Mayfield replicate his near-elite 2024 numbers?
2. Is Bucky Irving a top-12 RB?
3. Will Rachaad White be at least a weekly streamer?
4. Is this the year Chris Godwin leapfrogs Mike Evans?
5. Can rookie Emeka Egbuka be fantasy-relevant?
In my 2024 Bucs rundown (which ran exactly one years ago tomorrow), I wrote the following about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin:
"Jameis Winston had career years throwing to Evans and, eventually, Godwin. Tom Brady lit it up for two years throwing to that tandem. Three of Brady's seven highest-yardage seasons came in a Bucs uniform, often leaning on Evans and Godwin. Ryan Fitzpatrick posted impressive yardage and TD totals spot-starting for this team . . . thanks in part to Evans and Godwin. Mike Glennon was his best statistically (on a per-game basis) in 2014, when Evans was a rookie."
That section concluded with a fantasy-loaded question, especially in light of Baker Mayfield's QB22 ADP: "At what point do we credit Tampa Bay's exceptionally talented wideouts for elevating their quarterbacks more than their quarterbacks have elevated them?"
So I pushed Baker as a bargain, and he far exceeded even my loftiest expectations, finishing as the QB4. With Evans and Godwin in the lineup, he netted 23.2 fantasy points per game. With only Evans, he hit 22.1. With neither, he sank to 16.4. Not a coincidence. The only surprise was how elite he was with everyone healthy. This summer's QB7 ADP assumes (mostly) more the same. As long as Evans and Godwin are on the field, Mayfield's mammoth floor and terrific upside are secure.
Speaking of Evans, the all-time great caught a nine-yard pass on the regular season's final play, giving him 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his 11 NFL seasons. In fact, the last time he had less than 1,000 yards was his senior year at Ball High School. Nine summers ago I referred to him having a "15-year Hall-of-Fame career." Still somehow only 31 years old, he's fairly safe at his WR20 ADP, though he's not my favorite to lead Tampa Bay receivers
Those honors would go to Godwin, if healthy to start the seasons. Last year the 29-year-old was on pace for a 121/1,399/12 receiving line -- and that was in seven games playing alongside Evans. Imagine if he'd been on his own, soaking up (quite possibly) even more targets. But recovering from a season-ending dislocated ankle hasn't helped his AP, which sits at WR34. I've got him at WR26, just ahead of Evans.
2024 third-rounder Jalen McMillan might have been the wild card of this corps. But then the franchise drafted Emeka Egbuka with the 19th overall pick. There are shades of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this selection -- adding a top-flight wideout to group that's already loaded on paper, but which might need a new #1 in the next couple years. I can't yet figure out where to rank Egbuka. Need to see what happens these next 3-4 weeks. But his WR52 ADP makes for a solid buy based on upside if Evans or Godwin misses time, and McMillan's WR68 ADP really only matters if the rookie falters in camp.
Where does this leave Cade Otton (TE23 ADP)? It's a rough fantasy situation for Mayfield's second-favorite target last season, but it also makes sense. In the Week 7 contest when Evans missed the final two-thirds of the game, Otton went off in the final frame with six catches for 83 on eight targets. In those next three games with both Evans and Godwin absent, Otton compiled a 22-193-3 receiving line on 29 looks. Egbuka's arrival diminishes the probability of Otton dominating in place of injured teammates. He is both better than his ADP, and not reliable enough to be drafted in 12-team leagues.
Finally, the backfield: last August, Rachaad White was one of my biggest RB busts, while rookie Bucky Irving was one of my biggest RB bargains. I reasoned that White was "coming off a 368-touch campaign (including the playoffs) after topping out at 225 in college. He remains woefully inefficient, with poor broken-tackle and yards-after-first-contact rates."
Although White's advanced metrics improved, Irving frequently outplayed him and somewhat comfortably out-touched him. But as a result, the market has over-corrected, handing Irving an RB10 ADP and sticking White at RB42. That gap is way too wide considering Irving wasn't a high-volume rusher in college. White is playing out the final year of his contract. He's a proven workhorse, even if he's not necessarily "better" than his backfield counterpart. I would fade Irving and reach for White at least one round early.
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