Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Joe Burrow continue to throw early and often?
2. Is Chase Brown a top-12 RB?
3. Who will be his handcuff, and will it matter?
4. Is Tee Higgins' injury history a hindrance to drafting him in the top 14?
5. Will Jermaine Burton beat out Andrei Iosivas for the #3 WR job, and will it matter?
Cincinnati has been top 7 in league scoring three of the past four seasons. Also during that stretch, a healthy Joe Burrow has finished as the QB3, QB4, and QB8. They've had a running back in the top 10 all four years. They've had a wideout in the top 11 all four years, including Ja'Marr Chase's WR1 performance last season. And at tight end . . . we'll skip tight end.
If you drafted one or more of the Bengals' top 4-5 playmakers the past few years, you usually struck gold, or at least silver. Managers with great players crave stability. Barring injuries, that's largely what you get with this top-heavy offense.
You want a quick read today? This could be a very quick read: I can't justify fading Burrow (QB5 ADP), Chase Brown (RB11), or Ja'Marr Chase (WR1). The same goes for sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks (RB73), who should be in a high-stake battle with Zack Moss (RB67) for the handcuff role. And while Tee Higgins' (WR13) injury history is concerning, it's not enough to upend his value. This is a stable fantasy corps. Again, as long as everyone stays healthy, you get what you pay for, and maybe a little more.
Strangely, the biggest bargain seems to be Mike Gesicki (TE27 ADP). Last year's TE18 was #3 on this team with 83 targets. He was tied for 18th in the league with nine red-zone targets. Burrow had a sterling 108.1 passer rating when targeting him. Target him a little more inside the opposing 10-yard line, and Gesicki could finish in the top 14. Probable? No. But TE27 assumes the worst, and this unit isn't prone to underperforming.
The #3 WR spot is the most confusing. Will Andrei Iosivas (WR86 ADP) or 2024 third-rounder Jermaine Burton (WR118) become the next Tyler Boyd -- a serviceable streamer in a high-powered offense? Maybe neither. But as suggested above, Higgins has missed five contests in each of the last two years. There's a path where one of those tertiary options gets a couple of meaningful spot starts.
More on Burrow: at his current sack rate, he'll be top 50 all-time by age 30. The offensive line remains lower-tiered. He's cracked 600 pass attempts in two of the past three seasons, and he was on pace for 620 in the third before getting hurt. Everything written above assumes he'll keep slinging it. And nothing really suggests he won't.
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