Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Kyler Murray a top-10 QB
2. Can James Conner remain a weekly must-start RB?
3. Will Trey Benson be fantasy relevant?
4. How much can Marvin Harrison Jr. rebound after a disappointing rookie campaign?
5. Is Michael Wilson draftable?
When Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell opted not to play in 2018 because of a contract dispute, the unproven second-year third-rounder James Conner was handed the keys to a coveted starting job.
But not just any job. Conner was replacing arguably the #1 fantasy RB. Bell was the RB9 in points per game as a 2013 rookie. He followed that up with the RB1 title in 2014 and (if we count points per game) 2016. Wedged in between in 2015, he was the ppg RB4 while playing only six games. In 2017 he was the overall and ppg RB2.
If you wanted to win your league, Bell was a consistent first-round ticket. When healthy. When he wasn't suspended. When he wasn't holding out.
Despite being tasked with filling Bell's huge shoes, Conner has established an arguably more impressive career. When he takes the field Week 1, he will have started more regular season games than Bell. He's averaged more yards per carry (4.4 vs. Bell's 4.1). His 70 touchdowns dwarf Bell's 51. And somehow Conner has gotten better with age. His last two campaigns were his best, aided by an astounding 51 broken tackles across that pair of seasons.
A lot of deserved accolades. And of course, we can't be sentimental and still win our leagues. Conner (RB20 ADP) is now 30 years old. He's coming off the healthiest season of his career. Second-year third-rounder Trey Benson (RB49) looms. Benson just turned 22; he's the future.
So while market values suggest Conner is the clear #1 RB -- and of course, he is based on the depth chart -- he's a relatively weak #1 RB. He had a career-high 283 touches last year. There's a "when, not if" vibe here. Benson might move into more of a timeshare by October. Or November. Or perhaps as soon as Week 2. We've seen this script before.
It goes without saying that Benson is a must-draft if you get Conner. But the urgency is even greater than with most backfield duos.
Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is coming off a campaign that was both solid and somewhat concerning. His 17.5 fantasy ppg was the lowest of his career, and his ppg QB12 ranking made him only a fringe weekly starter. So why does he have a QB9 ADP? Will Marvin Harrison Jr. help elevate him to the top 10? Possibly. And yet, there are so many really good fantasy quarterbacks out there. I can't justify burning that high of a pick on someone who realistically won't outperform several QBs currently ranked outside the top 14. Big picture: Murray has a safe floor. Fantasy picture: QB9 is too aggressive.
Back to Harrison, one of this summer's most fascinating fantasy receivers. Last year's #4 overall pick, he was the 9th-ranked WR entering Week 1. But he ended the season as the overall WR30 and (wow) the WR43 in points per game. He had nine single-digit performances. Worse than that, Murray played in every game, so we can't chalk up Harrison's struggles to a backup QB.
So this summer's WR19 ADP makes sense, right? The market expects improvement . . . though not enough improvement to match his rookie-summer hype.
I strongly disagree. Arizona didn't add even a semi-impact receiver this offseason. While the strangely undervalued Michael Wilson (WR92 ADP) could flirt with top-50 numbers, this remains largely a two-man receiving corps comprised of Harrison and Trey McBride (TE2 ADP). Harrison was 34th in WR red-zone targets last year, posting only 11 looks -- the same as guys like Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, and Gabe Davis. There is massive growth potential for someone of Harrison's youth and caliber. Arizona's unquestioned #1 WR should be drafted ahead of his ADP.
Not much needs to be said about McBride, whose volume and talent should keep his floor high and his ceiling sky-high. Already mentioned Wilson, a former third-round pick and last year's WR74; as long as this offense doesn't regress, Wilson should be drafted in all Best Balls and deeper leagues. Greg Dortch (WR131) will be newsworthy if Harrison or Wilson misses time.
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