Five Biggest Questions:
1. How much can managers trust Tua Tagovailoa's durability?
2. Is De'Von Achane still elite / near-elite?
3. Will Jaylen Wright be a serviceable deep-league streamer?
4. Could a healthy Jaylen Waddle outperform the aging Tyreek Hill?
5. Is Darren Waller a solid dart throw?
30 years ago, Detroit's Herman Moore and Brett Perriman combined for 3,154 receiving yards -- to my knowledge, the most yards by a WR tandem in NFL history. Scott Mitchell was the Lions' quarterback -- his first full season as a starter since leaving the Dolphins.
Three years ago, Miami's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle joined the exclusive 3,000-yard club, combining for 3,066 receiving yards. They probably would have crushed the Moore-Perriman record if Tua Tagovailoa had played a full season. But two concussions sidelined him for 4 1/2 games. In those non-Tua contests, Tyreek and Waddle averaged 41.0 fewer combined yards per game than with Tua on the field.
It's an interesting (or frustrating, depending on team/player preferences) thought experiment: How good would Miami have been in 2022 and 2024 if their franchise QB hadn't missed 10 combined games, and how much more dominant would their offense have been?
The 'Fins went all in ahead of their 2022 campaign, trading for one of this era's greatest wideouts in the prime of his career. Other moves on both sides of the ball set them up as serious Super Bowl contenders. But now we might be witnessing the twilight of this non-run. Just like the Lions in 1995, the Dolphins haven't won a playoff game despite fielding (on paper) a seemingly high-powered offense.
On a side note, it's been baffling that management refused to sign a capable backup these past two seasons -- or three if you thought they could have landed someone better than Teddy Bridgewater in 2022. Instead of jolting Miami into action, Tua's steep injury history has lulled them into a bizarre sense of security. In addition to Bridgewater in what was effectively his final NFL campaign, this team has served up Mike White, Tyler Huntley, and Skylar Thompson. This year it's Zach Wilson and rookie Quinn Ewers.
This is a long yet necessary setup to this fantasy rundown, because unlike most teams, the Dolphins are teetering on the edge of success and failure. The former (assuming healthy playmakers) would make everyone a fantasy bargain. The latter might prompt them to take initial steps toward a rebuild midseason, which would be devastating for managers trying to reach the playoffs and/or claim a championship.
I don't have any "Here's what you should do" thoughts, because how you value each Dolphin depends on how confident you are in their durability -- and primarily Tua's durability. I'm in the "not much to lose" camp when it comes to Tua, who was last year's QB14 in points per game. While his current QB2 ADP (vs. QB21 last week) might be a season-long outlook, it doesn't reflect his ability to produce solid-to-great numbers any given week. I've pegged him as a two-round bargain (25 spots ahead of his overall ADP).
I'm also a little bullish about Waddle (a steady WR32 ADP) and more neutral on Tyreek (down one spot to WR13). In fact, it wouldn't be crazy to bet on Waddle outproducing his 31-year-old co-starter. This perennial two-man corps once again has little competition, with either Malik Washington (down 26 spots to WR118) or 2024 touchdown hero Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (down 5 spots to WR113) angling for 30-40 yards per game.
The return of Darren Waller would be fascinating if it were not 2025. Although we can't entirely ignore a tight end who had back-to-back 1,000+ yard campaigns, that was 5-6 years ago. He hasn't been able to stay healthy since then and is now approaching 33 years old. His TE24 ADP (vs. TE27 last week) assumes he's a shell of his former self, and/or that he'll re-retire around November. But given who's behind him on the depth chart (Julian Hill and Pharaoh Brown), Waller presumably has the inside track to be one of Miami's top five targets when active.
One of those targets will be the electric De'Von Achane (RB6 ADP vs. RB7 last week). Should managers invest in the third-year phenom? Actually, I wouldn't. As I shared with Ryan Poertner on this page a couple weeks ago, Achane has several yellow flags, including a reportedly weakened offensive line – especially compared to two years ago when he broke out – as well as the looming risk that another Tua injury would compel this franchise to throw in the towel. Also, Achane’s advanced metrics – yards after first contact, broken, tackles, etc. – plummeted last season. He’s amazing in the open field. But Miami needs a perfect storm of health and productivity through the air to keep him elite. That makes him a slight fade.
His relatively short stature doesn't help. Essentially, he's a slightly taller version of Darren Sproles. His massive RB target share should sustain a high floor. But he's a bad bet to outperform market value. Jaylen Wright (RB52 ADP vs. RB51 last week) is another reason why. After collecting 71 touches as a rookie, he's poised to take a chunk of Raheem Mostert's 104 touches, which should push him at least into the 110-130 range, as sixth-round rookie Ollie Gordon II (RB75) and journeyman Alexander Mattison (RB92) are longshots to get much run even of Achane or Wright is forced to sit.
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