Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Michael Penix Jr. be fantasy-relevant?
2. Can Tyler Allgeier be fantasy-relevant?
3. Is Drake London a near-elite WR?
4. Will Darnell Mooney provide streaming value?
5. Can Kyle Pitts somehow return to his 2021 rookie-year form?
We are the dawn of the Michael Penix Jr. era in Atlanta. Or so the Falcons hope. Last year's #8 overall pick was a shock after the franchise re-upped with Kirk Cousins. They could have picked Penix's college teammate Rome Odunze (who came off the board at #9), or made things really interesting by pairing hybrid Kyle Pitts with Brock Bowers (the #13 pick).
Instead, they put their faith in a 24-year-old rookie who played just well enough to keep his job, but not well enough to make him a must-draft fantasy quarterback. His QB23 ADP (down from QB21 last week) is more than intriguing given the incredible playmakers surrounding him. That said, his market value reflects a seemingly capped ceiling, as this is expected to be a run-heavy offense.
Bijan Robinson (a steady RB1 ADP) and Tyler Allgeier (up two spots to RB47) might be close to last year's Jahmyr Gibbs / David Montgomery pairing, which combined for 523 touches. While Bijan's 365 touches in 2024 are concerning, his age (22) and versatility through the air make him only a middling regression risk. It's not enough for me to knock him down my rankings. Meanwhile, Allgeier is coming off a decent 150-touch campaign. If you draft Bijan, it's a must to snag Allgeier at least a couple rounds before his overall-140 ADP.
Through the air, how was Drake London the overall WR5? In fairness, he was the WR14 in points per game. A 40.7-point outburst in Week 18 made a huge difference. He entered that contest averaging 15.0 points per game, which at the end of the season would have made him the WR20 in ppg. He was also #3 in WR targets with 158. His WR9 ADP (vs. WR10 last week) seems a little aggressive, as it assumes sustained volume and production.
The rest of the WR corps beyond Darnell Mooney (WR48 ADP vs. WR47 last week) is a crapshoot, with Ray-Ray McCloud (WR82 vs. WR89) fighting for scraps and perhaps KhaDarel Hodge (WR143 vs. WR150) fighting for scraps of scraps. There were no notable RB/WR/TE offseason additions, which reinforces how static this offense is. Barring injuries, we pretty much know what to expect.
Except for one guy: the enigmatic Kyle Pitts. I pushed him last summer. There was no holding me back. With Cousins at the helm, he was finally going to put it all together. Instead, he finished as the TE16 on a career-low 35.4 yards per game. Abysmal. Now his ADP is a consistent TE18. It's much easier toward the end of your draft to think, "Sure, I'll take a chance on this 24-year-old unicorn." Worst-case, he's the TE16-18. Realistic best-case, his target share ticks up enough to push him into the top 12. Regardless, the market has soured too much on a guy facing a contract year with more to prove than perhaps any tight end.
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