Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Daniel Jones win the starting QB job over Anthony Richardson, and will it matter?
2. Is Jonathan Taylor durable enough to play most/all of the season?
3. Is rookie DJ Giddens a must-draft handcuff?
4. Who will be the Colts' #1 WR, and will he crack the top 40?
5. Can Tyler Warren be a weekly fantasy starter?
Is there a more enigmatic fantasy quarterback than Anthony Richardson? He has six 20+ point performances in only 15 career starts. He's played more than 22 snaps in only 12 games. The sample size is small, yet the sample itself is impressive.
It's also a reminder that head coaches don't make personnel decisions based on fantasy stats. Giants cast-off Daniel Jones (QB33 ADP, down from QB29 last week) might start Week 1 -- in part because Richardson (up one spot to QB29) is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, and in part because Jones *might* give this team a better chance of winning. While Jones has been quite good at his best, he's also been dreadful at his worst. And we've seen him at his worst a lot these past six seasons. Whatever head coach Shane Steichen decides, Superflexers seeking high-ceiling quarterbacks should hope Richardson wins the job, while managers wanting higher WR numbers might prefer Jones.
If you're wondering whether this battle will impact Jonathan Taylor (RB8 ADP), I wondered the same thing. But so far his numbers don't lean one way or the other. While Taylor was lukewarm in his first three games alongside Richardson, his numbers last year with Richardson on the field (17.1 points per game) were comparable to his numbers with Richardson sidelined (18.9).
The bigger concern is, as always, workload. No surprise here. It's why running backs are no longer automatic first-round draft picks. For all the right reasons, we are hesitant to invest heavily in a position that averages the shortest NFL careers. Taylor is coming off yet another 300+ carry campaign -- his fourth in his last seven years (including college). If we count his 299-carry NCAA debut, it's five times in eight years. For context, Derrick Henry has hit 300+ carries five times in *12* college/pro seasons. This yellow flag gets yellower when we consider Taylor's spotty durability since 2022: six missed games, then seven, and most recently four. I'm fading him at his steady RB8 ADP.
On the assumption fifth-round rookie DJ Giddens wins the #2 job in camp, I will be all in on Giddens, whose current WR69 ADP is 10 spots lower than last week's. If he's the handcuff, then his ADP probably will pop to 45-50. Khalil Herbert (RB93 vs. RB88) is the back-up plan if Giddens stumbles.
While Richardson's presence wouldn't necessarily Taylor (or Giddens or Herbert), it would certainly impact Michael Pttman (WR51 ADP vs. WR50), who was a top-20 WR in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Last year was painful, and not in the "a little pain makes us stronger" kind of way. Pittman averaged only 8.8 points with Richarson on the field, compared to 13.7 without Richardson. When you're a team's #1 or even co-#1 WR, and you don't reach the end zone in 11 games with your starting quarterback, that's a problem.
Pittman's value suggests the market has had enough. Let someone else draft him. Except at that price point, he's hard to pass up. Alec Pierce (WR75 ADP vs. WR73) isn't a threat to overtake him on the depth chart. 2024 second-rounder Adonai Mitchell (down 19 spots to WR107) is a higher-upside dart throw than Pierce, though in a crowded receiving corps, he's purely a very-deep-league target. 2023 third-rounder Josh Downs began this preseason as the presumptive #1, at least in fantasy (WR47 ADP vs. WR46). Downs had better chemistry with Richardson last year. That's something to monitor in August as the QB battle heats up. But again, we're talking about a small sample size.
We also can't forget about rookie first-rounder Tyler Warren (a steady TE10 ADP). Indy hasn't had a top-25 tight end since 2019. Warren is the x-factor in an offense accustomed to largely ignoring TEs -- or at least, largely ignoring de facto #1's. Warren is more than that. He won't be ignored.
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