Five Biggest Questions:
1. Can Dak Prescott return to the top 10?
2. Who will be the most productive fantasy RB?
3. Will George Pickens crack the top 24?
4. Are any WRs not named CeeDee or George draftable?
5. Can Jake Ferguson rebound?
The Cowboys' minus-118-point differential last season was their worst showing since Troy Aikman's rookie campaign. For context, Aikman will turn 60 next year. It was also their second-worst point differential since 1961. So to be clear, 2024 was an historically horrendous season for this franchise.
It's interesting (if that's the right word) that based on ADP, Dak Prescott (QB12, up from QB13 last week) is wedged between Jared Goff (QB11) and Brock Purdy (QB13). Every summer I say roughly the same thing: there are about 10-12 QB outside the top 10 who realistically could post top-10 numbers. Dak is one year removed from a QB3 finish. How many people be surprised if he finished in the top 6? I don't yet know where I want to rank him by August. But for now he's one of many reasons why I wouldn't reach early for a supposed top-10 QB. Simply put, there's a ton of steal potential.
The backfield is exciting in all the worst ways (fantasy-wise). It's sometimes hard to remember how good Javonte Williams used to be. As a rookie, he led the NFL with 31 broken tackles despite netting only 203 carries. An insane achievement. He was going to be special. But after tearing his ACL, MCL, and PLC ("posterolateral corner") early the following season, he never looked the same.
Could Dallas feed him 200 times? Maybe if we include receptions. But this has the makings of a two- or three-headed backfield unless fifth-round rookie Jaydon Blue flops and 2x reclamation project Miles Sanders retires mid-season. Seriously, it's a strange enough situation where the late-season #1 might not even be on the roster. For now, Williams (RB37 ADP vs. RB40 last week), Blue (a steady RB44), and Sanders (plummeting 11 spots to RB68) are sensibly priced as low-risk dart throws. If Blue shows well in August, I would push him ahead of Williams. Otherwise, expect Williams' value to improve -- which might not be a good thing.
I'm generally a fan of teams' #2 WRs in thin receiving corps. That's why last summer I pushed guys like Rashod Bateman, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Jalen Tolbert as huge bargains. All three had WR ADPs outside the top 70. All three finished in the top 45. Tolbert, for example, had eight double-digit performances -- not bad for a supposedly undraftable wideout.
But the Cowboys' corps is no longer thin. Pairing CeeDee Lamb (WR3 ADP) with new arrival George Pickens (WR32 vs. WR28 last week) might look like the complete package. Maybe it is. And yet, the former third-rounder Tolbert still looms, despite his (again) "undraftable" ADP (WR93 vs. WR91). Will Dallas give up on former second-rounder Jonathan Mingo? They burned a fourth-round pick last November to get him; that wasn't chump change for a 23-year-old with room to grow.
I'm not trying to overstate the importance of Tolbert, Mingo, or any other "lesser" receiver. CeeDee should crush it again, and Pickens has solid bargain potential. But Tolbert arguably is one of the league's most talented #3 WRs, and if Mingo makes it through final cuts, it would suggest Dallas is recommitting to their reclamation project. The biggest takeaway is that it's great news for Dak, who has WR depth for the first time since Amari Cooper departed after the 2021 season.
Meanwhile, Jake Ferguson takes a hit, as evidenced by his TE15 ADP (up from TE17 last week). He was 2023's TE9. Was it because he earned his team's second-most targets (102)? Nope. Last year his targets-per-game actually crept upward. But he was tied for 31st among tight ends with only five red-zone targets. The year before? He was #1 with 24 red-zone targets. What will happen this year? There is no conceivable way to pin down a value for a guy who might be largely red-zone dependent. With a realistic TE20 floor and equally realistic TE10 ceiling, Ferguson is a decent enough flier and should be available with your final pick in 12-team leagues.
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