Five Biggest Questions:
1. Will Justin Fields maintain fantasy relevance?
2. Is Breece Hall a top-10 RB?
3. Is Garrett Wilson a top-10 WR?
4. Are any other WRs draftable in even the deepest leagues?
5. Could Mason Taylor become a consistent streamer?
Two summers ago, I wondered whether Aaron Rodgers -- even as a glorified game manager -- could have the greatest statistical season in Jets QB history. Because when a franchise's "greatest" quarterbacks include Ken O'Brien, Joe Namath, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and perhaps a post-prime Boomer Esiason, there's room to grow. Their best fantasy QB since 2002 was (yes, this is true) Mark Sanchez in 2011. Sanchez was the QB10 that year. No one's bested him since.
By the way, I just reviewed my spreadsheet: every other team since '02 has had at least one top-8 QB performer. 30 of the 32 teams have had at least one top-6 QB performer. 14 teams have had at least one overall #1. The Jets are in rarified air, and not the good kind of air.
Now this seemingly perennially rebuilding franchise is trying to find new QB savior to help elevate an already talented playmaker corps. Justin Fields is their answer, at least for now. At his realistic best, Fields can dance around his QB10 ADP (incredibly, up five spots from last week). At his worst, he'll be benched by early October. For a guy who's never had a safe starting job, nearly everyone seems to have a strong opinion about Fields. He actually played his best football last year, and I had thought he'd keep Russell Wilson at bay. I'm comfortable taking a flier on him when the top 14-16 guys are off the board, but definitely not earlier.
Why does Breece Hall have a steady RB13 ADP? Maybe because he was last year's RB16. Maybe because with Fields at the helm, many managers are looking elsewhere for high-powered offenses. But that ignores the fact that Fields' arm can't/won't carry the load. Moving the chains hinges a great deal on the running game.
Hall is only one season removed from being the overall RB2 -- a year when he amassed only 223 carries while playing alongside Aaron Rodgers (four offensive plays), Zach Wilson (who hasn't played since), Trevor Siemian (who hasn't played since), and Tim Boyle (you get the idea . . .). Hall hasn't been overworked. Just turned 24 years old. Active in the passing game. Thin WR corps. Although the offensive line doesn't look promising, it didn't look any better last season. He's currently my RB6, while handcuff Braelon Allen (down two ADP spots to RB54) is similarly undervalued.
Back to that thin WR corps: this franchise essentially bailed on wideouts in free agency and the draft. Fourth-rounder Arian Smith probably went 2-3 rounds early. He's fast. That's about it. He'll turn 24 in October and has questionable hands. He was the 17th wideout taken. Yes, they desperately needed o-line help (first-round OL Armand Membou) and pounced on a great-upside TE in the second (Mason Taylor). CB Azareye'h Thomas was a good value pick in the third.
This wouldn't have mattered as much if the salary-cap-friendly Jets had more aggressively pursued an impact receiver in free agency. Instead they're left with the low-ceiling Allen Lazard (down 12 ADP spots to WR129), the possibly lower-ceiling Josh Reynolds (down 6 spots to WR113), 2024 third-round bust Malachi Corley (WR144), the rookie Smith (WR134), and (both respectfully and exaggeratingly) former Super Bowl champ Tyler Johson (no ADP). This is, of course, great news for fantasy managers. Top-heavy is always preferable to muddled. Garrett Wilson offers solid value at his WR15 ADP (vs. WR14 last week). Everyone else is a low-floor dice roll.
The rookie Taylor (at an unmoving TE25 ADP) also benefits from this set-up. The Jeremy Ruckert era is over before it began. When Fields was in Chicago, TE Cole Kmet earned the team's second-most targets in two seasons and the most in a third. Pat Freiermuth collected 26 looks and two TDs in six games with Fields last year. While it might take a little time for Taylor to acclimate, he'll be thrown into the mix early. He's currently my TE23 with a little room to improve before Week 1.
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