Five Biggest Questions:
1. Is Brock Purdy a top-12 QB?
2. Can we trust Christian McCaffrey as a first-round pick?
3. Is Brandon Aiyuk worth drafting as a top-45 WR?
4. Will Ricky Pearsall outperform Jauan Jennings?
5. Is George Kittle still an elite or near-elite TE?
Last summer, the Niners and Chiefs had the best odds of winning the title. A rematch would have marked the first time in 31 years that the same teams met in back-to-back Super Bowls. Then star receiver Brandon Aiyuk held out for a payday. Christian McCaffrey, coming off a 417-touch campaign (including the playoffs), started dealing with Achilles tendonitis in early August. Later that month, first-round rookie Ricky Pearsall was shot in the chest.
Eventually Aiyuk got paid, and then wilted on the field before getting knocked out for the year. CMC started in only four games before he, too, was put on the shelf. Pearsall heroically returned less than two months after his near-tragedy, and then proceeded to play heroically on the field in the absence of the franchise's two biggest offensive stars.
In spite of the adversity, this team still had a shot. They were 13 seconds away from beating Seattle on the road. They would have moved to 6-4. But Geno Smith broke through a hole in the line and scampered into the end zone from 13 yards out. It marked his second rushing touchdown of the season -- the first time he'd hit that mark since his 2013 rookie campaign. That play -- that unlikely finish -- effectively ended the 49ers' season. And now they're maybe one or two years away from looking at a rebuild. CMC is 29. George Kittle is almost 32. It's been a win-now club for several years. Now it might be a win-now-or-never club, and seemingly everything has to go right.
The fantasy focal point obviously remains CMC, at least for now. Last summer -- before news of his tendonitis -- I wrote a column explaining why every manager should avoid him. He was the near-universal RB1. It seemed ridiculous. But as always, data doesn't lie. My spreadsheet on every high-usage running back in NFL history showed that given his age and 2023 volume, there was a 92% chance that he would regress in 2024, and that this regression probably would be steep (the historical average was a 29% regression).
Around that time, subscribers to my rankings saw that I placed Jordan Mason about 50 spots ahead of his overall ADP and Isaac Guerendo about 90 spots ahead of his. Mason was suddenly a must-draft RB. Guerendo was a must-get in deep leagues and Best Ball. This is one of the keys in any preseason. If you're down on an RB, you should be high on at least one of backups -- ideally the handcuff, but not always, depending on how fluid the depth chart is.
The market is still pretty bullish about CMC, handing him an RB4 ADP (one spot up from last week). He has a storied injury history and an even more storied dominance history. If I had to bet now, I'd say RB4/5 is his realistic ceiling, so I'd pass on that price point. Guerendo (RB45 vs. RB48 last week) is a slight bargain, and fifth-round rookie Jordan James (RB79, down two spots) needs to show very well in camp to push Guerendo early on.
At wideout, I was too bullish on Brandon Aiyuk last summer, believing everything would be fine once he had a contract. He wasn't fine, and then he tore his ACL and MCL. Awful. Now he's questionable to return early this season. I can't justify snagging him, even at his "bargain" WR48 ADP (unchanged from last week). Will reassess once his timetable becomes clearer
That means Pearsall (WR42 ADP, also unchanged) and Jauan Jennings (down two spots to WR39) will carry a moderately heavy load in September and maybe longer. It helps that Demarcus Robinson is facing a suspension -- not that it helps Robinson, but it creates a smoother path for Pearsall and Jennings to be fantasy-relevant. And fourth-round rookie Jordan Watkins isn't showing up on draft boards yet.
However . . . keep in mind that the Niners threw fewer passes in 2023 than any other team, and Brock Purdy's volume didn't increase much last year, despite the fact CMC missed most of it, and despite the fact they were often playing from behind. Purdy will be more CMC-dependent than ever. Last year he was the overall QB13. So naturally the market ranked him last week as the 13th-best fantasy quarterback. That was a bit too optimistic. Now it's QB12, one notch ahead of Dak Prescott. I'm not buying it.
Finally, George Kittle. The nearly 32-year-old posted his highest yardage total since 2018 and the second-most TDs of his career. It happened, in part, because he caught an insane 83% of his looks. Purdy's passer rating when targeting Kittle was 135.2 -- compared to 96.1 overall (or in all likelihood, around a 90.0 QB rating when targeting non-Kittles. His unmoving TE3 ADP is (again) largely because he finished last season as the TE3. It's an unimaginative response. He averaged only 4.0 targets when CMC was on the field vs. 6.8 when CMC was sidelined. Kittle cannot be expected to dominate again. He *might*. But I think his odds are comfortably below 50/50, which is why he's a fade in my rankings.
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