Five Biggest Questions:
1998: Peyton Manning -- 16 starts/games, 3,379 / 26 / 28
1999: Tim Couch -- 14 starts (15 games), 2,447 / 15 / 13
2001: Michael Vick -- 2 starts (8 games), 785 / 2 / 3 passing and 289 / 1 rushing
2002: David Carr -- 16 starts/games, 2,592 / 9 / 15 -- QB35 in fantasy points per game
2003: Carson Palmer -- 0 starts/games
2004: Eli Manning -- 7 starts (9 games), 1,043 / 6 / 9 -- QB48 PPG
2005: Alex Smith -- 7 starts (9 games), 875 / 1 / 11 (not a typo) -- QB65 PPG
2007: JaMarcus Russell -- 1 start (4 games), 373 / 2 / 4 -- QB62 PPG
2009: Matthew Stafford -- 10 starts/games, 2,267 / 13 / 20 -- QB22 PPG
2010: Sam Bradford -- 16 starts/games, 3,512 / 18 / 15 -- QB31 PPG
2011: Cam Newton -- 16 starts/games, 4,051 / 20 / 17 passing and 706 / 14 rushing -- QB3 PPG
2012: Andrew Luck -- 16 starts/games, 4,374 / 23 / 18 -- QB10 PPG
2015: Jameis Winston -- 16 starts/games, 4,042 / 22 / 15 passing and 213 / 6 rushing -- QB19 PPG
2016: Jared Goff -- 7 starts/games, 1,089 / 5 / 7 -- QB43 PPG
2018: Baker Mayfield -- 13 starts (14 games), 3,725 / 27 / 14 -- QB20 PPG
2019: Kyler Murray -- 16 starts/games, 3,722 / 20 / 12 passing and 544 / 4 rushing -- QB12 PPG
2020: Joe Burrow -- 10 starts/games, 2,688 / 13 / 5 -- QB19 PPG
2021: Trevor Lawrence -- 17 starts/games, 3,641 / 12 / 17 passing and 334 / 2 rushing -- QB37 PPG
2023: Bryce Young -- 16 starts/games, 2,877 / 11 / 10 passing and 253 / 0 rushing -- QB40 PPG
2024: Caleb Williams -- 17 starts/games, 3,541 / 20 / 6 passing and 489 / 0 rushing -- QB24 PPG
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Williams finished well below ADP expectations despite entering the league with one of the best group of playmakers in living memory -- four guys with 70+ reception potential, plus dynamic pass-catching RB D'Andre Swift. The rookie QB certainly looked good at times. But when a #1 overall pick is handed that much surrounding talent, they're *supposed* to look good.
This brings us to the less mobile (or at least less speedy) Cam Ward, who will need to do almost all his damage through the air. That should keep him outside the top 24. Tennessee picked him first overall because . . . well, because they had to. Two years earlier, 26 teams passed on previously presumptive top-5-pick Will Levis. The Titans scooped him up. He never really had a chance on a team where, in 2024, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Tyler Boyd (with all respect to Westbrook-Ikhine and Boyd) were forced to play larger-than-expected roles after DeAndre Hopkins' early-season departure. Westbrook-Ikhine's TD heroics aside, a mostly Calvin-Ridley-or-bust passing attack wasn't going to elevate a guy like Levis.
A case could be made that this year's WR corps is worse -- which is the opposite of what you want when you burn the most draft capital on a franchise QB. Westbrook-Ikhine and Boyd are gone, replaced by the nearly 33-year-old Tyler Lockett, ceiling-capped journeyman Van Jefferson, and fourth-round dart throws Elic Ayomanor and Chimer Dike.
Then there's 2022 first-rounder Treylon Burks, whose career uncomfortably resembles Chicago's 2025 first-rounder, WR Kevin White. Burks' recovery from ACL surgery will force Tennessee to make some tough roster decisions before Week 1. If Burks is cut, it might signal that Ayomanor or Dike is ready for a starting gig. Or it could pave the way for Ward's former teammate, underrated seventh-rounder Xavier Restrepo, to push for snaps.
I'm not drafting Ridley at his WR32 ADP; more can go wrong than go right. The Titans with the second- and third-best WR ADPs are Lockett (82) and Ayomanor (83), which says as much about them as it does about their teammates. Eventually there will be a thinning, and then we can roll the dice on "the next Westbrook-Ikhine." For now, I'm skipping this entire receiver corps, including historically popular desperation streamer Chig Okonkwo (TE26 ADP).
In the backfield, Tony Pollard did better than I expected last year en route to career-highs in carries (260) and rushing yards (1,079). Did it translate to fantasy success? Somewhat. He was the RB22 in points per game. His current RB27 ADP suggests the market remains at least moderately bullish. I'm well below that. He has already overachieved compared to nearly all of the roughly 150 RBs who had similar (or less) college usage these past 25 years.
Tyjae Spears (RB41 ADP) is also risky, especially in an offense that might be a bottom-five scorer. But his value hinges partly on rookie Kalel Mullings (RB108), who profiles as a ceiling-capped two-down back if he somehow earns starts. But if Mullings shows poorly this preseason, I'd feel comfortable snagging Spears at his ADP as a glorified handcuff with top 20-24 upside.