Happy New Years to those who celebrate. Sizing up WR booms and busts could take 3,000 words, and that would just scratch the surface. Wideouts are a strange fantasy group. On the one hand, #1 WRs are pretty easy to predict for most teams, and #2 WRs often remain starters. There simply aren't a lot of demotions at that position, which helps make things more predictable.
On the other hand, when a completely overlooked WR comes out of nowhere and breaks through, it can completely transform a fantasy team. If you picked up Puka Nacua last September, you landed the overall WR4 for peanuts. He was the preseason WR101 based on ADP. Several under-the-radar RBs shock the fantasy universe. But the fact is, guys like Nacua are extremely rare.
To a lesser extent, there are guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose ADP was WR72 in 2021. He ended up being the WR21. A nearly free weekly starter to help round out a lineup. Not bad.
My two examples happened to be rookies in those respective years. Maybe a coincidence, or maybe first-year Day 3 draftees and UDFA's offer the kind of unpredictability we want in a boom-bust lottery ticket -- especially when they join a team with major WR deficits.
Except . . . who among us would actually want to burn several late-round picks on such lottery tickets. The four seventh-round WRs in the 2024 NFL draft were Brenden Rice, Tahj Washington, Cornelius Johnson, and a 26-year-old named Devaughn Vele. Why did Vele make noise when the others were largely silent? How did he get six double-digit fantasy outings, securing more catches and yards than any WR drafted after the second round?
Did playing with a fellow rookie QB help? Anecdotally, that might make sense. But I don't have the data to support it.
This season, it shouldn't be too surprising that one of the biggest booms was Brian Thomas, whose WR48 ADP seems crazy now. He was my WR37, ranked more than 40 spots ahead of his overall ADP. Malik Nabers (WR24 ADP) was another huge bargain. I pegged him as the WR30, believing poor QB play would undercut his upside. Instead, he's leading the league with 162 targets in only 14 games. That alone will usually make someone a top-10 WR.
Other big performers include Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR40 ADP), who I pushed as a big bargain on my draft board, placing him 28 spots ahead of his overall ADP. Jerry Jeudy (WR55 ADP) absolutely lit it up. How? Why? Yes, he's talented. And once Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper were out of the picture, Jeudy took off. There's no easy way to predict that in the preseason. And yet, once Cooper left town, those who quickly caught on scored big.
I never expected Darnell Mooney (WR63 ADP) to be relevant, ranking him just inside my top 70. But Wan'Dale Robinson (WR77 ADP), Rashod Bateman (WR75 ADP), and Josh Downs (WR68 ADP) were among my biggest preseason must-draft WR targets, ranking all three 60-70 spots ahead of their overall ADPs. If you wanted an end-of-the-roster flyer with a good shot at becoming a weekly streamer, this trio delivered far beyond market expectations.
While this doesn't need to be a laundry list, subscribers can look back and see the results. Jakobi Meyers was listed as a big bargain in my rankings. So was Jameson Williams, Jordan Addison, and Courtland Sutton. Most of my big WR bargains inside my overall top 100 popped, including the continually injured and under-appreciated Tee Higgins.
Of course, there were a lot of busts, such as Marvin Harrison Jr., Deebo Samuel, and Michael Pittman. I hit with Pittman, was neutral with Harrison, and whiffed on Deebo. I also missed big on Chris Olave and Brandon Aiyuk. Could blame it on injuries, though they probably would have flopped (relatively speaking) regardless.
A final thought on WRs: Be cognizant of "changing-of-the-guard" receiving corps. I was convinced this summer that JSN would be no worse than Seattle's #2 receiver, with a shot at supplanting D.K. Metcalf. A few years ago, I pushed Justin Jefferson alongside an aging Adam Thielen. It might take a year or two or three. But we need to recognize that even if a young, ascending wideout is his team's #2 or #3 WR to start the year, it doesn't mean he'll finish as the #2 or #3. There's an opening to lock in huge value.
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