One of my biggest misses of the season was picking Kyle Pitts as the TE1. It seemed logical over the summer. On August 17th I wrote, "One of my favorite Pitts stats is that quarterbacks last season averaged an 83.9 QB rating when targeting him. That was higher than Desmond Ridder's rating in 13 starts. It was significantly higher than Taylor Heinicke's rating in four starts. Pitts elevated his quarterbacks, but he could only do so much. With Kirk Cousins under center, Pitts almost assuredly will do a lot more."
He earned 6.5 targets per game as a 2021 rookie. It dropped to 5.9 in 2022 and 5.3 in 2023. This year? 4.4. I never expected a reduced role. Wouldn't have made any sense four months ago. And yet, even if he'd matched last year's pace (a 20% target bump in looks and production), Pitts currently would've been only the TE10. His ADP probably will be outside the top 8 or even 10 next summer. Not much to lose I guess, but also a painful weekly floor.
The market mis-valued a lot of TEs, including several more I whiffed on: Sam LaPorta (TE2 ADP), Dalton Kincaid (TE5 ADP), Evan Engram (TE7 ADP, and middling even when healthy), Jake Ferguson (TE9 ADP), Brock Bowers (TE10 ADP), and Jonnu Smith (TE24 ADP). In fairness, I ranked Bowers a little ahead of his average draft position, though not enough to suggest he'd be remotely elite.
On the flip side, I ranked Travis Kelce 16 spots below his ADP in the belief advancing age and an improved defense (corresponding with fewer throws by Patrick Mahomes) would cap Kelce's ceiling. Most interesting (to me) is that he led all tight ends with 26 red-zone targets. But inside the 10-yard line, he was only tied for 6th -- a far cry from four of the prior five seasons, when he was #1.
There are two issues here. The first is that, while his targets per game is comparable to most previous years, the *quality* of his targets diminished. The second issue is that at age 35, he's lost a step (or two). Entering this season, his quarterbacks (mostly Mahomes, obviously) had a roughly 110.0 passer rating when targeting Kelce. This year it's 83.6. He's endured career-worsts in yards-before-the-catch, yards-after-the-catch, and broken-tackle rate. It's all interconnected.
One of my biggest preseason TE bargains was Cade Otton, ranked 25 spots ahead of his overall ADP. While Chris Godwin's injury played a meaningful role in Otton's breakout campaign, he likely would've crushed his TE26 ADP regardless. Anticipating a roughly TE14 ADP for him next summer, keeping him relevant in deeper leagues.
Finally, I thought Trey McBride would flop, relatively speaking. He was my TE9. The irony is that I ranked him 86 spots *ahead* of his ADP the previous summer. That worked out great. As I wrote this past July 4th, "[in 2022] McBride became the centerpiece of the passing attack because of talent, and because of a frequent lack of healthy talent around him. He's both incredible and overvalued at his TE3 ADP."
Instead, he's led Arizona this year in looks, catches, and receiving yards. And he probably would have been the TE1 if Kyler Murray (only 17 TD passes) had come closer to the league average, as McBride netted merely one score. As good as he's been, there's room to improve in 2025 if the Cards play more aggressively through the air.
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