This week I've tried to make sense of the biggest 2024 booms and busts at each core offensive position. Today, a few words on DSTs.
Entering Week 18, the #1 fantasy DST is the Broncos. Their preseason ADP was DST22. The #2 fantasy DST, the Vikings, had a DST27 ADP. The #3 Packers had a DST19 ADP. Pretty dang incredible. Even more incredibly, none of the preseason top 6 DSTs (again, based on ADP) are among the top 10 fantasy scorers. The Rams (DST30 ADP) have been better than all of them.
The obvious takeaway is that preseason DST rankings are largely irrelevant. Sometimes they hit. More often they miss. And my research going back 12 years shows that to be true.
One thing to watch for is how bad a DST's offense is. The Browns (DST4 ADP) and Jets (DST5 ADP) both entered the season with serious question marks on offense. Cleveland's last in the NFL in scoring. The Jets aren't that much better (9th worst). Bad offenses generally put more pressure on defenses -- for example, more possessions and better average field position for opponents.
So the Browns and Jets DSTs are tied for 25th. Given the context, not a shocker. And all of the worse DSTs (Raiders, Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, and Panthers) are also near the league bottom in scoring. Bad offenses often cap DST ceilings. Conversely, great offenses often elevate DST floors. If I'm deciding between two DSTs, the team with the better offense usually wins out.
Tomorrow and Sunday I'll write a little about the weekend's games, and then post a final column on Monday. Thanks as always for being here, and good luck if you're still competing in Week 18.
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