Merry Christmas to those who celebrate. A quick update before jumping into today's huge games. As always, this blog will run through Week 18, wrapping up the following day on Monday, January 6. Then a long break (i.e. incorporate 2024 data into all of my spreadsheets, which probably takes 100+ hours), returning around late June / early July.
If you had / are having a great season and want to donate to this page -- like tipping a bus driver for getting through traffic by barreling over cars to get you to your doctor's appointment on time, or something like that -- I'd be grateful. Details at the bottom of each column.
If you're annoyed with your commissioner and want to compete in the 2025 FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League, ping me, and I'll ping you back around May once we start reassembling the league.
If you wish Wednesday NFL football happened every week, then . . . some of you know where this is going. I've been publicly pushing the same WNF schedule since 2015 (with a tweak after the league added one game). The regular season would run 19 weeks instead of 18. From Week 2 thru Week 16, each division would rotate bye weeks. For example, all four NFC West teams might have their bye in Week 2, followed by the AFC Central in Week 3, and so on. The only exception is the week before Thanksgiving, when two divisions would be on a bye. And these bye weeks would rotate each season, so that in an eight-year span, each team would have experienced byes in Weeks 5 and 12, Weeks 6 and 13, etc. Because . . . fairness.
Also, no more games on four days' rest. All WNF teams would be coming off one of their byes. Thursday Night Football would feature the *other* two teams coming off a bye (because remember, they're all in the same division). So any team playing Wednesday would be coming off a nine- or 10-day break. Thursday teams would have a 10- or 11-day break. This would help improve the quality of nationally televised mid-week games, because players suffering concussions or other ailments in a game have a better chance of recovering before their next game if it's 9+ days away vs. 4+.
Okay, checked that box. On to today's contests.
Steelers vs. Chiefs: Were any you burned Saturday when Isiah Pacheco had only 10 touches? Or Najee Harris only nine? Well, this sometimes happens when RBs have to play four days later. What complicates this is the fact that their backups played very well. Kareem Hunt looked spry on 13 touches, while Jaylen Warren had a nice fantasy line on 17 touches.
The door is open for any of these four RBs to step up. Pittsburgh has yielded a middling 4.2 YPC to opposing RBs. But they're also giving up 8.2 yards per RB reception. That's seventh-most in the NFL. Now, Patrick Mahomes hasn't dumped off much to his backs. But it's possible one path to beating the Steelers lies with Pacheco and/or Hunt getting looks through the air. I believe those two will combine for 23+ PPR points. The problem is not knowing how their touches will be divvied.
Through the air, the Steelers' D of course is tough, and the return of Marquise Brown makes Kansas City's receiving corps as confusing as ever. DeAndre Hopkins hasn't seized the alpha role, and he might not even be #2. Xavier Worthy has been no worse than "good" for the past six weeks, and his back-to-back 11 targets can't be ignored. Barring a dramatic shift, Worthy is the only receiver I'd semi-trust for 12+ points.
Meanwhile, no defense is stingier against fantasy QBs than the Chiefs. And only the Chargers have surrendered fewer RB yards per catch. I don't entirely trust any Pittsburgh playmaker. With George Pickens expected to return, it'll be hard to bench him. So trust that he'll get enough looks to crack double-digits. But if any Steeler gets more than 12 points, I'd be surprised.
And yes, I'm including Russell Wilson. KC's defense is #3 in QB hits. I think head coach Mike Tomlin will want to keep this game in the trenches as long as possible.
Texans vs. Ravens: Will keep this briefer. Joe Mixon (15 touches this past weekend) and Derrick Henry (26 touches) are both in line to do whatever is needed to win this must-win game. A Houston loss might force them into a must-win Week 18 matchup in Tennessee. A Baltimore loss could help foil their chances at a division title. Both running backs should be safe starts.
The same goes for Nico Collins, especially with Tank Dell out for the year. Dalton Schultz is a solid TE dart throw. And I still don't trust C.J. Stroud. And Diontae Johnson? We've seen that story before. Maybe he'll surprise, though I wouldn't bet on it.
For the Ravens, more of the same: Which receivers will step up? Zay Flowers had between 10 and 12 points in four straight outings until hitting 15.3 last weekend. His targets are fine. And the Texans' defense is tied for the league's most passing TDs yielded. Flowers is still "safer" than Rashod Bateman. In deeper leagues, I'd start both pretty enthusiastically. And Mark Andrews is as TD-dependent as he's been all season. Given how much he's scored, that's pretty good. But yes, he probably needs to score, and if you need a top-10 TE, he's worth the risk.
Good luck today.
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