The three home teams playing on four days' rest this week scored 10, 2, and 3 points. Two of those teams are playoff-bound. Each of their starting quarterbacks had only one turnover (with Caleb Williams' coming on the second-to-last play).
All three squads have been struggling on offense for weeks. The Steelers haven't exceeded 17 points in four straight games. The Texans haven't cracked 20 in four straight. And now the Bears haven't topped 17 in four straight. This week, they all pretty much hit rock bottom, or so one would hope.
Digging deeper into Chicago, they've had two head coaches and (technically) three offensive coordinators this year. It shouldn't be entirely surprising that they've scored more than 20 points only once all season. That came in Week 12, courtesy of an 11-point flurry in the game's final 30 seconds. An earned fluke.
Caleb Williams probably has one more season as the face of this franchise before the team has to decide if he's "the guy." My August 18th column focused on my indecision regarding Williams' fantasy outlook. Was he better or worse than his QB15 ADP? On the one hand, he had four receivers who could catch 70 passes apiece (that'll end up being one or two). And they had a very favorable schedule, including 15 of 17 games versus teams outside the top 13 fantasy DSTs.
I also wrote, "But there are also plenty of yellow flags. The Bears' o-line needs to play to its potential, and also stay healthy (something it's struggled with). Allen is now 32 and has missed 11 games these past two seasons. Swift missed three games in each of this first three campaigns, but he's coming off a career-high 229 carries -- not just NFL career-high, but lifelong career-high (including high school and college). For most starting RBs, it's not a big deal. For someone like Swift, it's uncharted territory."
Additionally, there was the concerning history of rookie QBs picked #1 overall in the past 20 years. Cam Newton was the only one to finish in the top 9 in fantasy points per game. Only two others (Kyler Murray and Andrew Luck) finished in the top 18. Guys like Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield fell flat.
I ended that column fairly convinced that Williams was overvalued, and as subscribers know, I ranked him almost two rounds below his ADP. Despite having somewhat of a "super team" on paper, at least when it came to offensive playmakers. And yes, "super team" isn't an exaggeration. His 212 passing yards per game and a 19-6 TD-INT clip through 16 games isn't wholly better than Justin Fields' 2023 Bears numbers: 197 passing yards per game and a 16-9 TD-INT clip through 13 games. And thanks to his running prowess, Fields actually averaged 2.5 more fantasy points per game.
In the offseason, Chicago swapped out #2 and #3 WRs Darnell Mooney and Tyler Scott for Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze. Although Mooney has been incredible in Atlanta, few could justifiably argue that Fields had a "better" receiving corps than Williams has. And yet, most could justifiably argue that Fields did roughly as well (or better) with less.
If Chicago wants to keep Williams around for a while, they'll need to re-make their offensive line. Last night featured two new o-line starters. He entered the game with a league-leading 60 sacks. Now he's up to 67. He could come close to breaking David Carr's single-season record.
2002's #1 overall draft pick, Carr started his final game at age 28 after averaging 3.3 sacks per start. More recently, Sam Howell led the league with 65 sacks in 2023, a few more than rookie Bryce Young (62). Deshaun Watson endured 3.3 sacks per start in his first four campaigns; he's looked pretty bad ever since. Roughly four decades ago, 2x Pro Bowler Neil Lomax had an abbreviated career after absorbing 3.6 sacks per start, retiring before his 30th birthday. Steve Buerlein led the NFL with 62 sacks in 2000 -- his final season as a full-time starter.
There are many more examples, as well as a few exceptions (Randall Cunningham persevered). But on the whole, quarterbacks with unreasonably high sack rates (generally north of 3.0 per game) lack longevity.
No doubt, it's too soon to gauge whether Caleb Williams can be a franchise-elevating quarterback, or even "just" a franchise quarterback. Dynasty managers should be patient, because his near-term value can't get much lower. While there's no evidence of teams automatically sticking with #1 overall drafted QBs beyond the first couple years, Williams' current QB18 ranking (in points per game) place him ahead of most #1 drafted QBs. Relatively speaking, he'll enter Year 2 with a decent floor . . . as long as he holds onto the job.
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