NFL.com's playoff probabilities for the Seahawks look like a typo. But they aren't. Seattle currently has a 14% chance of reaching the postseason. If they beat the Bears today, their chances will remain at 14%. And if they lose? 13%. Yeah, weird but true.
Strength of schedule (as determined by what happens in a few games this weekend) is a key factor. And of course, if Seattle loses and the Rams win, it’s over. But yes, there are relatively longshot scenarios where the Seahawks lose today, the Rams fall to the Cardinals, and then Seattle beats the Rams next week to clinch a playoff berth.
Fantasy-wise, this might not matter much. But it might if let’s say Geno Smith is hurting at halftime. In a win-or-go-home scenario, if he can stand and throw, then he’s probably back out there in the second half. And maybe that would happen anyway. But in the back of their minds, they’ll need to at least consider the possibility of a week 18 winner-take-all scenario where Sam Howell under center might be a minor-to-major disaster.
Regardless, I like the Bears in an upset. Despite absorbing the most sacks in the league (60), Caleb Williams has been playing much better lately. He owns a 10-0 TD-INT split in his last five games and is running well. And yes, he has one of the most talented receiving corps at his disposal, so reasonably high expectations were warranted. But he’s finally starting to play up to his rookie potential, rather than falling well short of it, and that matters if you're looking for a streamer. I like Williams cracking 18 points and comfortably feeding at least two of his three starting wideouts.
Seattle probably will try to beat Chicago on the ground. The Bears' D is yielding 4.84 yards per carry to opposing running backs, getting gashed recently by Jahmyr Gibbs, Aaron Jones, and even Isaac Guerendo. The last RB they held in check was Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 10. That was also the last time they held an opposing team below 20 points. With Kenneth Walker sidelined, Zach Charbonnet could be one of Championship Week's most pivotal RBs. He's scored in each of his four starts this year, collecting a combined six TDs, reeling in 16 catches, and netting 5.1 yards per carry. There's monster potential here.
But Chicago is one of the toughest against the pass, giving up the third fewest QB fantasy points. So if they jump out to an early lead, the Seahawks might be forced to (partially) abandon the run, which would play right into the Bears' hands. And it might mean Geno won't get much going, making Jaxon Smith-Njigba the team's only other seemingly "safe" fantasy option.
Predicting a 26-17 Chicago victory. Feel free to leave your prediction below.
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