We've reached the point in the fantasy season when more matters and less makes sense. In ESPN leagues, Ameer Abdullah is the fourth-most-added RB after scoring his second rushing touchdown since 2018. Of course, his appeal is through the air, catching 26 balls in his last seven games. Chig Okonkwo is the most-added Week 17 TE. Back-to-back outings with double-digit targets makes him hard to bench, even though it *feels* like chasing points.
Some of you in the title hunt have to decide whether to start someone today, or wait and hope another guy is active tomorrow/Monday. There are no right answers. It depends on risk tolerance. For example, earlier this week I received questions about whether to wait on James Conner or start an RB in an earlier game. If I didn't think that replacement RB was a good bet to get 10+ points, I advised adding Trey Benson and Michael Carter as a hedge on Conner's availability.
Today's games bring similar question marks. J.K. Dobbins' anticipated return throws the Chargers' backfield into a bit of chaos. How much work will the often-injured Dobbins earn? Is Gus Edwards safely benchable as a too-risky TD-or-bust dart throw?
The opposing Patriots might push aside Rhamondre Stevenson, who's lost three fumbles this season, in favor of Antonio Gibson. Can RB-needy managers trust either one against a defense yielding an NFL-low four RB rushing TDs?
The next matchup features the perennially top-heavy Bengals against the seemingly overachieving Broncos. This summer, Cincinnati had the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl, while Denver owned the fourth-worst odds. Tee Higgins is questionable today, while Jaleel McLaughlin will return to a backfield featuring a potentially ascending Audric Estime and the occasionally receiver-friendly Javonte Williams. Again, who can we trust?
The Rams-vs.-Cardinals nightcap brings us back to Conner and whether he's a safe start if he's good to go. Michael Carter and the questionable Trey Benson of course would be unstartable if Conner returns. But if Conner's on a publicly reported snap count, managers might be compelled to look elsewhere.
And Cooper Kupp has produced like a team's #5 WR in three of his last four games. Arizona's D has surrendered the fifth-fewest receiving TDs. The Cards are more beatable on the ground, and in L.A.'s last five wins, Matthew Stafford has averaged only 25.4 pass attempts. Will the Rams continue to pound the ball on the ground at the expense of the formerly elite Kupp?
Good luck today.
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