The Chargers and Broncos had losing records last year, in part because they surrendered the ninth- and sixth-most points, respectively. This year they control their own playoff destinies, in part because they've surrendered the league's fewest points.
There might not be much to get excited about in tonight's matchup fantasy-wise. Denver has the overall QB9 (Bo Nix)and boasts the overall WR12 (Courtland Sutton). L.A. has the overall WR19 (Ladd McConkey) and . . . not much else. Both teams' stout D's make things even tougher. This has the strong potential of becoming a field-goal-kicking contest.
The stakes are obviously high. If the Broncos lose, their final two games are against Cincinnati and Kansas City (though the Chiefs might be able to rest a lot of starters in Week 18). The Bengals could run the table and eke into the postseason, essentially taking Denver's spot if the Broncos fall short in their remaining contests.
And while the Chargers seem to have it easier down the stretch (road matchups versus New England and Vegas), neither is an automatic win, especially for a team that's lost three of four games, is weighed down by a bottom-10 backfield, and has a relatively thin receiving corps.
McConkey has been a lone fantasy bright spot for the Chargers ever since J.K. Dobbins went down. And Sutton has been the most consistent bright spot for the Broncos. Nix is the huge wild card. The rookie QB threw a combined five picks these past two weeks against the Colts and Browns. Is he hitting the "rookie wall," if such a thing exists?
It's clearly more complicated than that. But here's what's apparent: the last time these teams met in Week 6, Nix rushed six times for 61 yards. By the following week, he'd racked up 255 ground yards on 52 carries (4.9 YPC). That's a per-game average of 7-36 rushing line. However, since then he's collected only 72 yards on 28 carries (2.6 YPC). That comes to an average 4-10 rushing line each game.
Nix's floor really isn't any higher than Justin Herbert's. While the overall numbers are nice, he's more reliant on TD passes, and that shouldn't inspire confidence.
I expect two fairly conservative game plans, a lot of punts, 4+ field goals, and no more than two offensive touchdowns. If you have solid Sunday/Monday options, I'd avoid everyone except Sutton and probably McConkey. Even the Broncos' backfield isn't appealing, despite Jaleel McLaughlin's injury.
Predicting a 16-10 Chargers victory. Leave your prediction below.
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