We're less than 15 hours away from tonight's NFC West face-off, and there are still major questions that might not have answers until 2-3 hours before the opening kickoff.
The #1 pressure point for some of you is whether to trust Isaac Guerendo if he's active, and/or whether former fourth-stringer Patrick Taylor is a must-start dart throw (kind of an oxymoron, but you get the idea) if Guerendo sits. Taylor might be just north of pedestrian, and desperate fantasy managers might not care -- or might not have a better option.
The best thing going for Taylor if he starts is that Ke'Shawn Vaughn probably will back him up. Vaughn has collected 99 yards on 43 carries (2.3 YPC) since 2022. The Niners needed bodies in the backfield, and they weren't too picky.
The worst thing going for Taylor if he starts is that this is a must-win game for San Francisco. They probably wouldn't give this perennial backup a heavy load. Maybe 12-14 touches?
So who would fill in the gaps? That's why Deebo Samuel is so intriguing. Despite being the overall WR48 -- an almost inexplicable drop-off, especially in light of Brandon Aiyuk's underwhelming / injury-plagued campaign -- Deebo seems to get more carries when his team isn't comfortable with its RB corps. His season-high eight rushing attempts came in Week 1 alongside the still pretty green Jordan Mason, who never had more than 11 carries in a game in his first two seasons. Deebo's next-most carries (five) came last weekend, when the mostly unproven rookie Guerendo earned his first start.
Deebo leads all WRs with 32 carries. No one else has more than 14. Last year he led all WRs with 37 carries. Aside from Rondale Moore's 28, again, no one else had more than 14. And the year before that, he led all WRs with 42 carries. aside from Curtis Samuel's 38, no one else had more than 17. The disparity the year before that (2020) was even more absurd (59 for Deebo and no more than 18 for everyone else).
This is his differentiator. It's why even when he struggles through the air, he can still help managers win. Last year, 22% of his fantasy points came on the ground. The 49ers desperately need him with or without Guerendo -- and especially without.
I have no other thoughtful thoughts about sit/starts. Jauan Jennings and George Kittle seem obvious these days, as do Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua. Three of the five are posting elite numbers, while the other two (Jennings and Williams) are as capable of 20+ points as any non-elite player.
Two things concern me about Williams. Although I'd never suggest benching him, I'd be more anxious than usual about starting him. He's coming off a career-high 29-carry performance four days ago. His road usage/production pales in comparison to his home stats. His targets per game have steadily declined in each successive month since September. His advanced metrics (yards-after-first-contact, broken-tackle rate) are significantly worse than last year's marks. And as shared last week, Blake Corum apparently is here to stay.
Also notably: he's averaging only 3.0 YPC in fourth quarters this season. That's not normal for a weekly must-start RB. His 14 touchdowns give him an outsized advantage over more productive runners like Rico Dowdle -- guys who simply aren't getting/converting a lot of goal-line looks.
I think San Francisco will gut out a victory, while the Rams will come out relatively flat after their 44-point outburst Sunday. Niners win 22-14. Leave your predictions below.
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