In a week where seven starting quarterbacks scored less than five fantasy points and six had 28+, last night's QBs -- representing four unique archetypes -- posted similarly forgettable numbers, leading to primarily painful forgettable outputs from their receivers.
Sam Darnold led the way with 11.24 points. He's the Reclamation Project. A 27-year-old and former #3 overall draft pick who lost his way after a miserable tenure with the Jets. (By the way, "miserable tenure with the Jets" is probably one of the most-searched Internet phrases). Stick him on a team with dynamic offensive playmakers, and suddenly he's a top-10 fantasy QB headed toward a sizable payday.
Desmond Ridder followed close behind with 11.12 points. He's the Recent Draft Bust. The second QB taken in 2022's historically weak quarterback draft class, Ridder had 13 starts last season and couldn't keep his job. Facing his former team in his first start of the year, he somehow took another step back. The opposing Falcons had yielded the seventh-most points. On Ridder's only touchdown pass, Ameer Abdullah did all the heavy lifting. In fact, dump-offs to RBs accounted for 48% of his completions and 38% of his passing yards.
Caleb Williams managed 9.94 points. He's the Can't-Miss Prospect. The #1 overall pick earlier this year. The Bears surrounded him with loads of talent. Surely he's going to turn this franchise around. Except . . . . in the past 20 years, most of the 13 QBs taken #1 overall have been massive busts for most of their careers. Williams' shaky rookie campaign could be a blip, or it could be a sign of things to come. The consensus remains bullish. He can't possibly struggle for long. Or so it seems.
Then there's Kirk Cousins, who limped his way to 6.48 points. He's the Fading Star. And while some might think "star" is an exaggeration, he topped 4,000 passing yards in seven of eight campaigns, and surely would have made it eight of nine had he remained healthy last season. Cousins started out as a fourth-round insurance policy after Washington mortgaged part of their future to land Robert Griffin III. He was the same age as Darnold is now -- 27 -- before he finally became an established NFL starter.
Entering last season, Darnold's dynasty value would have been the lowest of this group, and Cousins' *might* have been the highest for managers in win-now mode. Now Cousins is treading water ahead of only Ridder, while Darnold is at #2, not too far behind Williams.
Last night's games reminded us why player values are in constant motion. When that motion points only one way -- like Ridder's downward spiral since last August -- we don't have to think too hard. When that motion suddenly shifts, we have to determine whether it's a blip or the start of a trend.
Darnold and Williams are among the most fascinating dynasty QBs. If Darnold remains in Minnesota -- if they abandon J.J. McCarthy in favor of a guy who now looks like a franchise-elevating quarterback -- then he could be a perennial top-10 option. But if he signs a long-term deal on a team that isn't loaded at receiver (the Titans, for example), he might return to mediocrity.
Meanwhile, Williams has flashed at times, and presumably he'll be better in Year 2. But Bryce Young hasn't been. Neither was Baker Mayfield. Plenty of "can't-miss" players do, in fact, miss. D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze are locked in for years. Williams should have enough great receivers to become a consistent top-14 QB. For now, though, he's simply a highly touted player trying to figure it all out.
If you have strong thoughts about Williams' and Darnold's values ahead of 2025, shout it out below.
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