Congratulations (and thank you) to Jeremy Schwartz for picking the exact final score of last night's thriller. The thanks is because about a dozen of you made pretty similar predictions, which was starting to make my brain hurt when I ran through it around midnight. Jeremy's "34-31" prediction helped me sleep easier.
Also helping me sleep easier: I started Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams, so a decent start to the week. Benched Sam LaPorta in favor of T.J. Hockenson at TE, and in favor of either Jalen Tolbert or (ideally) a healthy Parker Washington. You know what I'm talking about: If LaPorta scored, it would have felt almost as bad (or worse) as if Gibbs or Williams had dropped a pass in the end zone. Regret is the most unforgiving fantasy emotion.
The box score was a statistical oddity in many respects. Six Lions caught either five or six balls. No one else caught any. Gibbs and David Montgomery racked up nearly identical points (19.3 and 19.4, respectively), despite combining for only 3.2 yards per carry. Tim Patrick scored for the first time in three years. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught five passes, yet finished with his team's eighth-most points, behind even their kicker.
For Green Bay, Jayden Reed now has three or fewer receptions in six of his last seven starts. Even after losing a fumble, Christian Watson was Jordan Love's primary target. I had advised some of you to bench Reed because I didn't trust the Packers' offense, even against a beaten-down Lions D. So despite an impressive 24 second-half points, Reed came up empty. On at least one occasion he was wide open, and it looked like Love was locked in, but then he threw to someone else. Maybe there's more to this, and maybe it's simply a function of having a low-volume QB.
On that note, Love attempted 32+ passes in four of his first five games. But in five of the six games since, he hasn't topped 28, and four of those times it was 23 or less. The Packers entered the night winners of seven of eight games, so their approach generally has worked. But now their last two losses are against Detroit, almost guaranteeing they can't win the NFC North.
Meanwhile, Jacobs now has eight touchdowns in his last four games. He's been a near-MVP for managers who snagged him in the late-second round or even later (his overall ADP was 26).
Finally, back to St. Brown He was on a tear for two straight months, but has been more subdued since Week 12. What happened? Hard to know. If you have theories, shout 'em out. Goff's thrown more since Week 12 than at any time since Week 2, so it's not a volume issue. Williams has been more consistently involved, but still hasn't caught more than five balls in a game. And take away Patrick's huge night, and it's unclear how his Week 12 and Week 13 performances could have hurt St. Brown.
Maybe it's a combination of these and other factors. Williams, Patrick, and LaPorta are *all* more consistently involved. In previous years, St. Brown was the unquestioned alpha. This is arguably the best collection of receivers he's played with. So while his floor remains quite high, he's no longer "the guy."
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