Jared Goff has seen a lot. The former #1 overall pick was swapped a little over three years ago for Matthew Stafford, another former #1 overall pick. Stafford helped lead Goff's former team to a Super Bowl title. What might have been.
Two years before that, Goff was on the losing end of Patriots' 2020 Super Bowl title -- their last one with Tom Brady. The Rams averaged 32.9 points per game that season, but mustered only three with the ascending Cooper Kupp hurt and all-world RB Todd Gurley at the start of a rapid descent that pushed him out of the league less than two years later.
It's easy to forget how many people maligned Goff as a middling QB at best, and a backup at worst. To some, he was only marginally better than Carson Wentz -- who was drafted right after Goff, and who faded dramatically after four pretty strong campaigns. Goff also started fading in Year 5 (2020), his final year in L.A. Heading into 2021, his fantasy ADP was QB33. Yes, QB33. The following summer it was QB27. These past two years, his ADP hasn't reached the top 14.
And yet, his fantasy output earned him QB10 numbers in 2022, netted him QB7 numbers in 2023, and presently he's the QB11.
I'm focusing on Goff because he's an example of a fantasy enigma. The market continually undervalues him, and for some reason the market never learns. Why is that? Maybe because so many people are stuck on who he once was, rather than who he is: a very good quarterback in a prolific offense that leads the NFL in scoring. There's plenty of untapped potential in Goff's "modest" fantasy production. He's capable of four-TD days if Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (21 combined rushing touchdowns) don't punch it in.
On paper, the opposing Packers' pass D is quite good. They're yielding the sixth-fewest QB fantasy points per game. But context tells a different story. Tua Tagovailoa had his way with them last week, completing 80.4% of his passes for 365 yards and two scores. Before that, Green Bay faced backup Brandon Allen and Caleb Williams, the latter of whom hadn't thrown a TD pass in any of his three previous outings.
The week before, Goff didn't need to do much in a game where the Lions led 24-3 late in the third quarter. The week before that, Trevor Lawrence threw for the second-most yards of his season. And so on. They're also once again missing talented CB Jaire Alexander.
This isn't to knock Green bay's defense. It's to say the Lions -- and particularly Goff and his top receivers -- should exceed expectations against a D that's benefited from playing against many of the league's middle- and lower-tier passers, and which hasn't exactly excelled against many top-16 QBs.
I believe this will be a statement game for Goff, who historically has thrived in 11 nationally televised Thursday contests: 21 TDs and only three interceptions with a 105.1 QB rating. He's on the verge of "leading" his team to the NFC's #1 playoff seed. I'm banking on 280+ yards and 3+ TDs, and I'd fire up all of the usual Lions RBs and WRs. Sam LaPorta? Still wary. But if you're up for starting a TD-or-bust tight end, he's one of the best.
For the Packers, it's hard to bench Josh Jacobs, so there's that. Otherwise, even with Romeo Doubs sidelined, this is a four-man receiving corps in a game where maybe only one will crack 10 fantasy points. No team has defended more pass attempts than Detroit, and yet they've surrendered the second-fewest TD passes while collecting the third-most interceptions.
Jordan Love & company are about to enter a buzzsaw. Yes, it's a divisional matchup, and sometimes those games are close. But I've got Detroit winning 37-14. Leave your prediction below.
---