This summer, three big-time receivers wanted three big-time contracts. I shared my opinion (candidly, without evidence) that "star holdouts on playoff-caliber teams generally get paid. Maybe not paid everything they want. But paid enough to return to the fold," because "the PR fallout of letting a star player go -- someone with five, six, seven, or more years of great production remaining -- would be tough for any franchise. For a franchise with title hopes, it could be devastating."
CeeDee Lamb got his money on August 26th, followed by Brandon Aiyuk three days later. Dallas had been the NFC's #2 seed the previous year. CeeDee, the consensus preseason WR1, was a big reason why. Meanwhile, San Francisco nearly won the last Super Bowl. Aiyuk was an ascending, sure-fire weekly fantasy starter.
Then there was Ja'Marr Chase, who held out despite being signed through next season. He wanted -- and at some point deserved -- a huge payday. But the Bengals were coming off a 9-8 campaign that placed them at the bottom of the AFC North. The franchise clearly wasn't in a rush to go all in on Chase quite yet. They were expected to be better in 2024. Yet they seemed to face more hurdles than Dallas or San Fran.
Whether or not it was a coincidence, CeeDee is 28% off last year's fantasy-point pace, and Aiyuk was 43% off his 2023 pace before getting knocked out for the season. The 5-8 Cowboys are almost mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, while the 49ers are barely relevant at 6-7.
But the guy who *didn't* get paid -- a receiver whose stock dipped when many of us were drafting -- is the runaway WR1. Chase's 24.4 points per game is the highest WR mark since Cooper Kupp's 2021 outburst. He's now a good bet to surpass Justin Jefferson as the highest-paid (full contract / guaranteed money) wideout. And the 5-8 Bengals still have a half-decent shot at the postseason, thanks to remaining games against the Titans and Browns, as well as a home matchup versus the Broncos (which might make or break their season), and wrapping up with the Steelers in Week 18. And if Pittsburgh locks up (for example) the AFC's 2- or 3-seed by the final weekend, Cincinnati might be favored.
It's fascinating that the two paid star receivers have underwhelmed, while the unpaid star receiver is enjoying one of the decade's best fantasy WR campaigns. Again, coincidence? Anecdotally, it makes sense. Statistically, who knows. But as discussed this summer, it would be a fascinating research project.
Digging into last night's contest, Chase Brown now has more than 1,000 total yards. It's a rare example of a team unloading its franchise RB (Joe Mixon) in favor of a less-tested tandem (Zack Moss and Brown). Moss's ADP actually was several spots ahead of Brown's heading into Week 1. As subscribers know, I thought that was misguided, and instead ranked Brown several spots ahead of Moss. Brown was a proven bell cow and impressive pass-catcher at Illinois. He's primed for a top-12 RB ADP in 2025.
Oh, and while Tee Higgins regressed at the worst possible time (or best possible time if you were facing him), that didn't stop Joe Burrow from racking up his fourth consecutive 300+ yard, 3+ TD performance. He's thrown 18 touchdown passes in his last five starts. Simply incredible. He's on pace for 641 throws, which would be the 27th-most in NFL history. A slight uptick in these final four games could put him in the top 10 in single-season pass attempts. Chase, Brown, and Burrow are locked in, period.
For Dallas, it's hard to envision a playoff push with Cooper Rush at the helm. "Adequate" probably won't cut it in Weeks 16-18 versus the Bucs, Eagles, and Commanders. For now, Rico Dowdle looks as good as ever, and CeeDee bounced back nicely. But with Rush at QB, everyone else is TD-dependent, and Brandin Cooks' recent return virtually ends Jalen Tolbert's run as a very-deep-league streamer. Even Luke Schoonmaker cut into returning starter Jake Ferguson's volume. Too many mouths to feed beyond CeeDee, and Rush isn't equipped to elevate the offense.
Congratulations to those who reached the fantasy playoffs. As for me, I accept defeat like I usually do: first with denial, then acceptance, then more denial, then blame, then confusion, then forgetfulness, then pretending I won, then bragging to my opponents that I won, then someone reminding me that I lost, then denial, and finally "den-eptance" (a mixture of denial and acceptance, depending on how much sleep I get).
Hope you have a more productive coping mechanism.
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