In 2023, the Texans appeared to be a team on the rise. Dynasty-wise, investing in C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell was a gold mine. All three were pre-prime. Then there was dependable top-10 TE Dalton Schultz. This offseason Houston loaded up with Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs. On paper, it was a fantasy powerhouse. The question was not whether they'd light up the scoreboard; the question was who would thrive most.
Tank Dell's brutal knee injury is yet another blow in a what-could-have-been fantasy season. Only Mixon has comfortably exceeded consensus preseason expectations. Stroud is the QB26 in points per game, which is somehow behind Trevor Lawrence and only barely ahead of Daniel Jones. Collins has been rock solid when healthy, and that's part of the problem. He's missed 14 games since October 2022, including five this year.
Like Collins, Diggs did well enough when healthy, yet played in only eight games. Schultz has been a complete bust, racking up fewer points than even KC backup TE Noah Gray.
Dynasty investors must now contend with the strong possibility that Diggs will play elsewhere in 2025 (presumably not in any better of a situation). Dell could miss a good chunk of next season. Mixon will turn 29 in July and has almost nowhere to go but down. Only six teams have less cap space ahead of next year, meaning the Texans might struggle to significantly retool for Stroud, who has taken a step back.
In fairness, Stroud has done pretty well all things considered. Many of his advanced metrics are par with last season's marks. But increases in dropped passes and sacks have cut too many drives short.
Collins appears to be Houston's only "safe" fantasy playmakers in the short term. It's a far cry from the buzz this past summer. And it's yet another reminder that any team can (sort of) come undone in less than a season.
Good luck today. And be careful if you're deciding whether to start Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet. Both might be a solid hedge. But they're playing again on Thursday. Walker might be eased back. Or maybe Walker will get most of the touches, while the team prepares to give Charbonnet more work in four days. This is where managers could get burned.
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