As team behaviors shift, fantasy managers need to shift with it. Or rather, we need to stay just ahead of the shift. Easier said than done.
Let's take passing: Starting in 1947, QBs started passing more and (not surprisingly picking up more yards and touchdowns). Then for about a decade beginning in 1959, it spiked again (if we include the AFL). Then a dip in the 1970's before two Dan's (Fouts and Marino) took quarterbacking to another level. The next big passing bump occurred at the dawn of the "modern" era, when guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees hit their prime. That started a little less than 20 years ago, give or take a year or two.
That made QBs more valuable fantasy commodities. It also elevated not only top-flight WRs, but also teams' #2 and even #3 WRs. More attempts, more completions, more yards, more scores. Everybody's happy, except those stockpiling DSTs.
Around that same time -- the early-to-mid 2000's -- tight ends like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten joined the league. Had they played a decade earlier, would they have dominated at their position? Maybe. It's possible the game would have changed with them. And in fact, maybe in some ways it did.
That brings us to today. It's notable (to me, anyway) that teams' average passing yards per game increased each season from 2008 thru 2015. Six QBs threw for over 4,000 yards at the start of that rise; a dozen threw for 4,000+ in that final year. How much higher would it go? It turns out that (for now), 2015 and 2016 represent the passing peak. The most pass attempts and passing yards per game occurred in those two seasons. Then there was a small dip.
And that brings us to these past three seasons, beginning in 2022. Pass attempts, passing yards, and passing TDs are down to their lowest points in 16 years. You could take any three-year period in the 1980s, compare them to 2022-2024, and think, "Not much has changed."
Last year, 10 QBs threw for 4,000+. But that was in a 17-game season. If last season had been 16 games, probably no more than four or five quarterbacks would have hit that plateau. And even with 17 games, only one QB cleared 32 TD passes. That hadn't happened since 2006 -- when Brady, Manning, and Brees were on the verge of transforming the game.
Why is this dip happening? You can probably come up with more reasons than me. From my perspective, the most obvious explanation is the rise of run-friendly QBs. Also, the recent retirement of big-passing quarterbacks like Brady and Matt Ryan (and a little further back, Brees, Big Ben, and Philip Rivers) left a vacuum filled with younger guys, some of whom don't look like long-term solutions.
No doubt, some quarterbacks are still slinging it. But on the whole, this passing downturn impacts WRs and TEs, especially with the (somewhat) recent rise in catch-friendly RBs. There are only so many passes to go around. When QBs are throwing less, and to a larger collection of pass-catchers, it's not hard to see why it's been so hard to predict which WRs will step up. It's seemingly harder than usual. Or maybe that's just me. But if it is the case, then this QB shift is one reason why.
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