As we shift into the final phase of the 2024 season, let's examine a fantasy subject I care most about -- a topic I invest most of my time researching: running backs. Players with the briefest collective NFL careers. Guys whose job security oscillates from year to year (aside from the elites and near-elites).
Earlier this year I produced two reports. One focused on offensive performance trends following a shutout loss, incorporating data from every shutout this century. The other focused on regression probabilities for high-snap-count running backs. If you invested in the latter report, you read my projections for each RB in these categories. I used a 1-to-10 scale for the 20 RBs in this subset, with 10 meaning the highest risk to meet/exceed ADP expectations. Now that the season is winding down, I can share what subscribers already know:
The lowest-risk RBs (1's, 2's, and 3's) -- the players my research showed had the best chance to meet/exceed expectations -- consisted of Bijan Robinson (RB3 ADP), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB6), Chuba Hubbard (RB44), Jerome Ford (RB41), Austin Ekeler (RB30), and Najee Harris (RB24). Their current rankings thru Week 13 are (in order) RB4, RB5, RB13, RB40, RB29, and RB22. Hubbard clearly was the biggest bargain. Every other RB in this "safe" group is currently within only two spots of their preseason average draft position. I did a double-take when I ran these numbers last night. Things don't usually fall into place this neatly.
Among the 4's, 5's, and 6's (mid-range risk), my research highlighted Tony Pollard (RB27 ADP), Travis Etienne (RB8), Joe Mixon (RB16), Kyren Williams (RB7), James Cook (RB14), Devin Singletary (RB34), D'Andre Swift (RB21), Breece Hall (RB2), and Josh Jacobs (RB12). Their current rankings thru Week 13 are (again, in order) RB21, RB38, RB6, RB9, RB12, RB42, RB19, RB11, and RB8. As you can see, these guys have been more hit-or-miss. Mid-range risk means you're rolling the dice a bit. Etienne has bombed. Kyren, Singletary, and Breece have (based on ADP) slightly-to-moderately disappointed. Pollard, Cook, Swift, and Jacobs have slightly-to-moderately come through. Mixon is crushing it.
These RBs collectively produced as expected, forming an almost perfectly symmetrical curve. If you bet on one this summer, you would've had about a 44% chance of landing some degree of a bargain, about a 44% chance of some degree of an underperformer, and let's call Williams (who's only two spots worse than his ADP) the middle 12%.
Finally, the riskiest RBs in my report (7's, 8's, 9's, and 10's) consisted of CMC (RB1 ADP), Rachaad White (RB13), Isiah Pacheco (RB10), Saquon Barkley (RB4), and (bear with me) Kyle Juszczyk (RB106). I couldn't leave out Juszczyk because he cleared my high-snap-count threshold. Saquon was a clear whiff; I'm still stunned, though it now makes a bit more sense knowing the Eagles' still-strong offensive line has (in recent years) contributed to Swift and Miles Sanders enjoying career years. But yeah, Barkley remains a unique talent, and staying healthy has made all the difference.
That leaves CMC, White, and Pacheco. White's the overall RB24 thru Week 13, as his standing as the Bucs' starter went out the window in September. Pacheco's 2023 usage was far and above anything he'd experienced in college, contributing to my high-risk rating. And CMC . . . you've known my thoughts on him since July. All key signs pointed to a major injury and/or massive per-game regression. Turns out he experienced both.
My report is called "The Relationship Between High-Snap-Count RBs and Next-Season Performance: 2012-2022." If there's interest, and if I have capacity, I'll produce a similar report for subscribers next summer. Sneak peek: I drafted Kyren Williams this year and am glad I did. But I'll likely steer clear in 2025, because he's on pace to become one of next year's riskiest RBs.
There's always randomness in sports. But the larger the subset, the smaller the impact of randomness on results. If you know the probabilities, you can draft or fade RBs with confidence.
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