Congratulations to those who clinched a title yesterday, and empathy toward those who lost. If you're still competing tonight, good luck, and drop a comment on who you're pulling for/against so I can cheer you on.
These next four days, I want to examine which preseason positional players were the biggest surprises -- both good and bad. Transparency is a big part of this blog -- again, both good and bad. I have big hits and big misses. Hopefully the former outweighs the latter. Let's focus today on quarterbacks.
Based on preseason average draft position, the biggest QB bargains probably turned out to be Jayden Daniels (QB12 ADP), Jared Goff (QB15 ADP), Baker Mayfield (QB21 ADP), Bo Nix (QB23 ADP), and Sam Darnold (QB31 ADP). Among the hundreds of you who subscribed to my preseason top 400 rankings, you know that I placed those three at 14th, 12th, 19th, 30th, and 20th, respectively.
I really liked Daniels earlier in the summer, and then pushed him down in favor of more established players like Goff and Tua Tagovailoa. Obviously a big mistake. Goff was a small bargain, in the belief his offensive playmakers were too talented to hold him back. Baker was also a small bargain, in the belief that his QB10 finish in 2023 wasn't a fluke. Nix caught me completely off guard. The entire Broncos team did. I was convinced they'd be hit-or-miss for much of the year, and that on balance Nix wouldn't be much better than Bryce Young the previous season. Instead, Nix often shined, thanks in large part to (a) his chemistry with Courtland Sutton, and (b) his rushing ability. Nix's 85 carries rank 6th among this year's QBs. I did not appreciate just how much work he'd do on the ground as a rookie.
As for Darnold, I devoted a full column on August 15th to why this young journeyman was my biggest QB bargain. I wrote, "A case could be made -- a strong case -- that Darnold will be this year's Brock Purdy." Last season, Purdy was the QB6 with 18.5 points per game. Darnold is currently the QB7 with 18.8 points per game. If you followed my logic (which of course is sometimes flawed) and invested in drafts' most overlooked quarterback, then you probably used a final-round pick (or a waiver add) on a weekly fantasy starter.
For the biggest busts (excluding long-term injured guys like Dak Prescott), let's go with Patrick Mahomes (QB2 ADP), C.J. Stroud (QB5 ADP), Anthony Richardson (QB6 ADP), and Trevor Lawrence (QB16 ADP). I whiffed horribly on Richardson, ranking him at his market value. Even when healthy, he was only the QB20 in points per game. I did even worse with Stroud, placing him as my QB3. The additions of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs gave him what amounted to a super team. And yet it all fell apart. Even before it fell apart, Stroud looked very little like the rookie sensation we witnessed last season.
My bullishness about Trevor Lawrence was, in hindsight, insane. But at the time, it made perfect sense to me. He was my QB8, equipped with an improved backfield (thanks to Tank Bigsby) and a net gain at wideout (Brian Thomas Jr.). I bought into the hype (myth?) that Lawrence -- who was only 24 years old heading into Week 1 -- was/is an ascending talent. I believe his ADP next summer will be around QB18. And yes, I'll probably be a sucker and push readers to invest in him again. Apologies in advance.
As for Mahomes, I had little doubt he'd regress and ranked him as my QB7. As I wrote on August 2nd, "I'm not on board with his QB2 ADP. Based on fantasy floors, sure. He's as dependable as they come. But after years of middling-to-good D's, the 2023 Chiefs finally unleashed an elite defense. Mahomes averaged his fewest pass attempts per game in 2019. An aging Kelce and a still-uncertain WR corps, combined with a still-great defense, hints at slightly muted numbers for the future all-time-great quarterback. I'm fading him almost two rounds after his overall-28 ADP, which means there's no way he'll fall to me."
In fairness, I also ranked guys like Jordan Love, Caleb Williams, Matthew Stafford, and Deshaun Watson below their ADPs. All four have been busts based on points per game. My views on Watson these past three years have been pretty blunt. If you sold high in dynasty at the beginning of this debacle, great job.
Looking ahead to 2025, based on how QBs have performed this year (which often aligns with next-year ADPs), who do you think will be a huge bargain or bust? Can Caleb take his game to the next level? Will Stroud and/or Lawrence rebound? Is it possible that Mahomes' days as an elite QB are over?
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