Another round of congratulations to those who won because of last night's results. And another round of empathy for those who fell short. And if you're competing in Week 18, I'll be here all week, wrapping up next Monday.
Yesterday I highlighted the biggest QB booms and busts based on preseason ADP. My quarterback recommendations were a mixed bag, with plenty of accurate predictions (like Sam Darnold's boom and Patrick Mahomes' bust) and unfortunately plenty of inaccurate predictions (like believing in C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Trevor Lawrence).
Now let's dive into RBs, again focusing on full transparency. This time I'm going to run through 10 of the biggest surprises, and how they compared to my preseason recommendations/rankings.
Kicking things off, Christian McCaffrey. I couldn't have been more clear or consistent in my repeated summer warnings. Based on my spreadsheet on high-usage RBs, there was a 92% chance of a massive regression and/or injury. He was the preseason overall-1 in ADP. If you steered clear, you saved yourself from headaches and heartaches. As I say over and over, "data doesn't lie." Next year I might put my irrelevant reputation on the line about another player. Understand that when I do, it means I'm that confident.
Since I was so convinced about CMC, I urged this community to invest in Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo. On my draft board, Mason was two or three rounds ahead of his ADP, and Guerendo was about eight rounds ahead. Basically, if you avoided CMC and instead snagged his two backups, you would've had 17+ points from that RB slot across five weeks, and another 8-12 points in seven weeks. For pennies. Not bad.
Travis Etienne (RB8 ADP) of course was a massive bust. Never saw it coming, though I pushed Tank Bigsby as a major bargain valued about six rounds ahead of his ADP. The rookie had 9+ six times. If he can get some work in the passing game, he can become a weekly streamer even if he's the 1B alongside Etienne.
Why was Isiah Pacheco ranked 64th on my board when his ADP was 19th? On August 2nd I wrote, "He had 342 touches (including the playoffs), which doesn't really up my enthusiasm. He topped out at 182 in college." A higher-than-normal injury risk on a team that needs him much more for the playoffs. His second-round value made no sense.
A special tip of the hat to those who invested in James Conner (RB18 ADP). He was my RB33. Currently he's the RB11. Enough said. I doubted Conner's durability and paid the price.
Zamir White (RB23 ADP) and Raheem Mostert (RB25 ADP) were huge busts. I was way too bullish about White, ranking him among my top 16 RBs. Was also adamant about Mostert being overrated, ranking him several rounds below his ADP.
Chase Brown was incredible. In the previous summer, I tagged him as one of the three most undervalued dynasty rookies. This summer he was my RB25 compared to an RB36 ADP. And Chuba Hubbard (RB42 ADP)? Wow. The offensive MVP for Carolina, hands-down. To play that well under those conditions was beyond impressive. He was my preseason RB41. Nothing impressive about that, but at least it wasn't worse than neutral.
A few more: Breece Hall was a minor disaster, topping 14 points only once since Week 8. In a better offense, he probably would have deserved his preseason elite ADP. Like most people, I believed he could shine. Big miss.
On the flip side, I ranked Rachaad White two rounds below his RB14 ADP and Bucky Irving three rounds ahead of his RB52 ADP. Wrote in August that White's massive workload last year, combined with Irving's fantastic hands (he caught 87 passes in his final two collegiate campaigns), made the former a likely bust and the latter a likely bargain. Through Week 17, White is the RB20, while Irving's the RB15. If you faded White and invested in Irving, you locked in exceptional value.
So altogether, while my QB predictions were middling at best, most of my RB predictions hit the mark. Maybe it's because I spend more time researching running backs and their historical trends than any other position.
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