The last time KC beat the Bucs at home was in 1986, when Bill Kenney outdueled a still-green Steve Young. Patrick Mahomes' parents were teenagers. Yeah, a while ago.
And Monday night's contest would've looked a lot different if it had been played in Week 1, when the Chiefs' starting RB and #1 WR were healthy, and when Tampa Bay's co-#1 WRs were healthy. Not sure which team has had it worse injury-wise. Probably the Bucs, since they have less room for error as they try to eke into the postseason after losing four of their last five contests.
But despite an 8-0 record, Kansas City also seems to have little room for error. Their opponents have been down only one possession in each fourth quarter. They're doing just enough to win, plus a little bit more.
Where would they be without Kareem Hunt? They didn't need long to realize Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, and (whenever we see him) Clyde Edwards-Helaire weren't the answers. And what if they hadn't acquired DeAndre Hopkins? With JuJu Smith-Schuster hurt, Mahomes might've had to lean heavily on the trio of Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman. Many fantasy managers would have struggled to figure out who, if anyone (besides Travis Kelce), to start. I definitely would have struggled.
Instead, Hopkins looks ready to own the #1 WR job, while Hunt has 21+ carries and at least one TD in four straight games. Isiah Pacheco doesn't need to be rushed back, which is obviously great news for those who grabbed Hunt off waivers a few weeks ago, and rough news for those keeping Pacheco on IR.
And is Mahomes a safe start again? Too soon to know. He'd thrown at least one pick in each of his first seven outings. I was relatively down on him this summer, in part, because playing with a high-end defense matters. Entering last night, only 15.6% of his throws came in the final frame. That's down from 19.1% in 2022, the last time KC had only a middling D. And when they last had a pretty bad defense (2018), that mark was 21.2%.
Mahomes attempted a season-high 44 passes yesterday while getting sacked a season-high four times. Great offensive numbers aside, that's not a sustainable combination for a franchise making yet another Super Bowl run.
Meanwhile, Cade Otton seems very comfortable as the Bucs' offensive focal point. Like most teams, Tampa Bay didn't exactly have a Plan B in the event their top two WRs got hurt. Sterling Shepard led all wideouts in targets, catches, and receiving yards. I don't think that's happened since Week 3 of 2022, when Daniel Jones' only other WR options were a nearly finished Kenny Golladay, a nearly finished Richie James, and a nearly finished David Sills. For several years, Shepard has needed decimated receiving corps to thrive. I don't think he's rosterable in 99% of leagues.
And the backfield got messier, as the hobbled Bucky Irving was outplayed by Rachaad White, while Sean Tucker continued to mix in. There will be valid sit/start questions this week involving White and/or Irving. At this point it's a guessing game. Although Irving is still my preferred stash, White has four scores in his last three games while looking considerably better on the ground. This is as hot-hand-ish as ever.
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