The Thanksgiving games turned out to be sort of a "law of fantasy averages" day. Some of the most surprising slumpers turned things around, and some of the most sure-thing producers fell flat. Leading things off is CeeDee Lamb, who had his worst output since Week 1 of the 2022 season, thanks in large part to dropping three passes and getting hurt. The undermanned Cowboys are clinging to playoff contention with Philly and Washington (not to mention Cincy and Tampa Bay) looming.
This means if Lamb misses next week's matchup against the Bengals, and if Dallas loses, they could end up two or even three games behind in the race for the final wild card spot. If you're hoping Lamb will dominate -- or realistically, simply be startable -- during the fantasy playoffs, you need to hope Washington loses to Tennessee, the Cowboys beat Cincinnati, and (of course) that Lamb is okay. At this late stage, there's little room for error.
Elsewhere, when Chicago was down 23-7 in the fourth quarter, did anyone expect a comeback? And when they were within field goal range to tie it, did anyone expect head coach Matt Eberflus to commit one of the worst timeout blunders since Chris Webber's epic gaffe in the 1993 NCAA Men's Basketball title game? (Different sport, different debacle, but similar inexplicable insanity.)
Fantasy-wise, replacing the offensive coordinator has made a huge difference in the passing attack. After exceeding 15.2 points only once thru Week 11, D.J. Moore now has 23.7+ in two straight. And after exceeding 9.4 points only once thru Week 11, Keenan Allen now has 23.6+ in two straight. Incredible. This was the plan all along. The Bears simply struggled to execute. An underwhelming backfield has put more weight on Caleb Williams & company, and it couldn't have come at a better time for patient managers.
Then there's Sam LaPorta. I benched him because of his low ceiling. He entered the day 8th in TE red-zone targets. But he'd seen only one throw inside the opposing five-yard line. For context, last year he had four. For a guy who had 10 TD catches as a rookie, getting looks near the end-zone matters a lot -- especially when his volume has tanked.
In Green Bay, Jayden Reed came through, yet it wasn't easy. As with LaPorta, we'll take the two scores. But he has three or fewer catches in five of six games. That happened only once in his previous six. This remains a spread-the-ball offense where the only two weekly must-start playmakers are Josh Jacobs and Tyler Kraft.
One more thought on the Lions, which entered the day #1 in scoring and #2 in scoring defense. Since their only loss came in Week 2, they didn't get the same attention as the recently undefeated Chiefs. But Detroit's defeat probably shouldn't have happened. Trailing Tampa Bay by four points, they had three fourth-quarter drives stall inside the Bucs' red zone. The Lions currently have the league's fifth-best red-zone touchdown success rate. It was kind of a fluke that they couldn't reach the end zone, and because of that, they're only one loss ahead of Philadelphia and Minnesota for the NFC's #1 seed, meaning they might not get a chance to rest their starters (good news for fantasy managers in leagues that compete in Week 18).
And speaking of Minnesota, consider for a moment the fantasy implications of Daniel Jones signing with the Vikings. Sam Darnold has revived his career. But he's also on pace for career-high sacks and interceptions. If he gets hurt and Jones steps in -- and the Vikings look better with Jones under center -- this could have huge repercussions in dynasty leagues, not unlike Jameis Winston vs. Deshaun Watson in Cleveland.
For today's matchup, it seems too easy/obvious to predict something like 40-7 Chiefs. But that's where my head is. Leave your prediction below.
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