I try not to have any fantasy biases, but sometimes I root for players outside of fantasy, if that makes sense. Jameis Winston has had only 13 NFL starts since leading the league in passing yards (and to be fair, interceptions) in 2019. In an alternate universe, Tom Brady doesn't sign with the Bucs in March 2020, and Winston remains the team's starter. He was only 26 years. Today he might have been a fantasy mainstay.
Maybe we can justifiably downplay his breakout five years ago. He was throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and as shared this summer, that duo has elevated pretty much every quarterback that's thrown their way.
But that's what makes his 2021 performance so compelling. Because that season he earned seven spot starts, engineering a 102.8 passer rating on a 14-3 TD/INT split. His top receivers were Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harty, and Tre'Quan Smith. Three years later, none of them are on active rosters, having compiled only 52 catches and three touchdowns since that season. Winston's #4 and #5 receiver options were Lil'Jordan Humphrey, and Adam Trautman.
Fast-forward to today: It took Cleveland more than two years to realize Deshaun Watson is -- and has long been (conceivably) -- washed up. Jacoby Brissett (2022) was Exhibit A. Joe Flacco (2023) was Exhibit B. And now Winston . . .
That's not to say Winston is this franchise's long-term answer. But in fantasy, he doesn't have to be. Backed by a suddenly uninspiring running game, he's been forced to sling the ball 40+ times in three starts. Jerry Jeudy is averaging 10 targets per game during that stretch. Elijah Moore: 9.7. Cedric Tillman is now more or less a weekly fantasy starter. Similarly, David Njoku's revival began the week Winston took over for Watson and "#2" QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
This is all to say that, with their "franchise" quarterback out for the year, and with #1 WR Amari Cooper long gone, and with all-world RB Nick Chubb a shell of his former self, the Browns' offense is finally fantasy-friendly, and Winston is a key reason why.
OK, so where does that leave us for tonight? That's the tricky part. The Cleveland forecast calls for cold and rain. As of 6:00am today, it's not expected to snow, though that could change. The good news, if there is any, is that winds are supposed to be pretty light.
Some would argue that Pittsburgh's pass defense is good enough to contain the Browns' passing attack. And that might be true. The Steelers are yielding the second-fewest QB fantasy points per game. Winston & co. might not have a chance. However, here are some of Pittsburgh's opposing QBs so far: Kirk Cousins in his first game back after tearing his Achilles, Bo Nix in his second NFL start, Justin Herbert struggling through an ankle injury, Anthony Richardson / Joe Flacco, Aidan O'Connell, Aaron Rodgers (yes, Rodgers is a net-negative fantasy QB), and Daniel Jones.
Dak Prescott's highest yards per attempt this year (8.4) came against Pittsburgh, as he threw for 352 yards. In an offense that frequently struggled versus "lesser" defenses.
The Steelers' most impressive defense performance have come in the last two weeks, severely limiting Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson. Yes, that matters. But both those guys rely on their own legs. Daniels netted his fewest carries of the season versus Pittsburgh, and Jackson had his second-fewest. They were forced to pass. That's not ideal.
For Winston, it *is* ideal. Give him another 40 throws, and he'll get his yards and (presumably) touchdowns. I'm betting Cleveland's offense will break through once again, despite the adversity of bad weather and Pittsburgh's D.
For the Steelers, be cautious with Najee Harris, who's coming off a 22-touch effort on Sunday. Jaylen Warren had only 13. I'd expect more of a time-share tonight. That means I'm struggling to bet on any Steeler other than George Pickens, because there's no obvious #2 WR, and Pat Freiermuth needs to find the end zone to be relevant.
Final score prediction: Browns win 20-13. Leave your prediction below.
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