Philly averages more carries per game than any other NFL team; Washington isn't far behind. Not surprisingly, Philly averages the fewest throw per game; Washington isn't far ahead. That's a good place to start as we assess potential TNF fantasy outcomes.
For the Eagles, the offense runs primarily through Jalen Hurts (of course) and Saquon Barkley. Hurts was my preseason QB1, and in the last three weeks he's played like it. In fairness, receiver injuries limited his ceiling for several weeks. For example, in the three games AJ Brown missed, Hurts averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game. He's netting 26.0 in his other six contests. That's elite, and that's what we should continue to expect from someone who (I believed) was a small-yet-meaningful draft steal.
Barkley also has been incredible, and with only 15 touches on Sunday, he should earn a full workload tonight. Unless it's a blowout, Kenneth Gainwell probably will see fewer than the 8.3 touches per game he's collected since Week 7.
Through the air, the Commanders have given up the third-most TD to opposing wideouts and the third-most to opposing tight ends. Even if Hurts attempts only about 24-28 passes, at least two of his three top targets should shine. I'd fire up not only a no-brainer like AJ Brown and a somewhat-no-brainer like DeVonta Smith, but also Dallas Goedert.
Meanwhile, Philly has been stingy against the run, surrendering the second-fewest RB fantasy points per game. There's some concern that Washington might be forced to abandon (or at least curtail) its running game by early in the second half. The returning Brian Robinson is too risky for me, and Austin Ekeler (a reasonable 14 touches on Sunday) is merely a PPR dart throw.
That leaves Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin as must-starts as usual, while Noah Brown and Zach Ertz are positional deep-league streamers.
I think at least four guys in this contest will crack 20 points and am predicting a 31-20 Eagles win. Leave your prediction below, and good luck tonight.
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