The last time Dak Prescott played less than half a season (2020), backup Andy Dalton and his talented offensive playmakers played well enough to help fantasy managers -- primarily down the stretch. In fact, from Week 6 (the first game without Dak) thru the end of the season, 14 of the 15 best fantasy performances were in Week 11 or later. The top four took place during the fantasy playoffs, when CeeDee Lamb (23.4 points in Week 16), Dalton (26.6 in Week 16), Michael Gallup (30.1 in Week 16), and Tony Pollard (31.2 in Week 15) helped many managers advance or win it all. Even with a 3-9 record entering the fantasy playoffs, the Cowboys turned it on when it mattered most.
This year, the prospect of seeing late-season heroics seems bleak. Last weekend, Rico Dowdle led all Cowboys with a paltry 8.6 points. Last night, CeeDee Lamb (18.6) was the sole success story among the usual cast of contributors. KaVontae Turpin 17.6 points came one week after he posted a zero while playing on only eight offensive snaps. Cooper Rush was adequate enough (16.4), though "serviceable" won't cut it for many managers. Jake Ferguson got hurt, opening the door for Luke Schoonmaker (11.6) and rookie TE Brevyn Spann-Ford (8.2). But I can't imagine anyone reading this actually started either backup tight end, which would have seemed ridiculous with Ferguson healthy at the opening kickoff.
Everyone else was a disaster, and Washington is on deck. Dallas easily could fall to 3-8, putting them on the brink of elimination from postseason contention. It's nothing like 2020, when many of the top players were fantasy-startable even after Dak's injury. Instead, we might expect a lineup shake-up in the coming weeks. Schoonmaker is an interesting name to track if Ferguson misses time. The same goes for Turpin, who's netted 3+ catches in five of his last six games, and who would be in line for a bigger role if CeeDee or Tolbert are ever inactive -- a distinct possibility for a flailing franchise.
However, keep in mind that Rush attempted 55 passes yesterday. That's the fourth-most by an NFL quarterback this season, and the fifth-most since the start of last season. He fed three, maybe four receivers because he was slinging it. Last week he attempted only 23 passes. A little shy of in between (30-35 throws) is more realistic going forward. Rush would be fortunate to feed more than two receivers per contest, and even that might be too high.
Meanwhile, Houston had zero receivers with double-digit points. C.J. Stroud has only two TDs and three interceptions in his last five outings. Sophomore slump? While WR injuries account for some of his shortcomings, with the exception of rookie TE Cade Stover, last night every other Texan receiver also played with Stroud in 2023. The promising young QB isn't the set-it-and-forget-it guy many relied on last season.
Maybe Joe Mixon has something to do with it. The 28-year-old RB is now the QB1 in points per game. Incredible. Last year's combination of Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce pale in comparison to Mixon, whose last 40 touchdowns have come inside the red zone. That backfield upgrade, combined with Stefon Diggs' season-ending injury, are putting downward pressure on Stroud's ceiling.
Finally, back to Schultz, who still hasn't scored, and who so far is one of the biggest preseason TE flier busts. He's merely 50th in TE red-zone targets. Last year he was #5 in TE red-zone targets. He was also #5 in 2022, and was a mediocre 15th in 2021. Still, "50th in TE red-zone targets"? Without scoring opportunities, even in a slightly thinned-out receiving corps, Schultz is becoming little more than a desperation dart throw.
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