Following an impressive Week 8 Rams win, I shared how Matthew Stafford was good, if not great, when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were on the field. In those 13 games, Stafford had compiled a 3,332-26-8 passing line. Across a 17-game season, that would be 4,357-34-10. His Week 9 effort against Seattle pushed him to 3,630-28-9 in 14 games, or 4,408-34-11. His roughly 18 fantasy points in Week 9 were about par for the course when his top two receivers were healthy.
The problem last night is that he faced an elite Miami D -- one yielding the third-fewest QB fantasy points per game (11.94). Entering yesterday, the Fins had defended only 27 red-zone throws in eight games, along with the third-fewest red-zone touchdown passes. Compounding the problem is that the Rams were 23rd in red-zone TD conversation rate; they've probably dropped to around 27th or 28th. They were fourth-best last year. Even with their big names back they're struggling to finish strong.
L.A. operated in the red zone on three drives Monday night, and on a fourth drive reached Miami's 21-yard line. The difference between a bad fantasy day, a middling day, and an excellent day came down to converting in these high-leverage situations.
This trickled down to all the key Rams: Kupp, Nacua, and even the frequently catch-friendly Kyren Williams. All three had somewhere between decent and excellent numbers. Even one touchdown catch might have meant the difference between winning and losing your week.
Red-zone conversion rate is one of hundreds of interesting stats to examine when predicting fantasy outcomes. The data also happens to be pretty compelling at the extremes. Last year's three best red-zone offenses were the Niners, Dolphins, and Lions. CMC was the #1 RB in points per game. De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert were top 5. Jahmyr Gibbs was #8. David Montgomery was #15. Deebo Samuel (#13 WR) and Brandon Aiyuk (#17) were weekly starters, while Tyreek Hill (#2) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (#4) were elite. George Kittle was a near-elite TE, while Sam LaPorta crushed it, thanks largely to eight red-zone scores.
This year the Ravens, Bengals, and Bucs are tops in red-zone conversions. When we see how well their core fantasy stars are performing, it all makes sense.
Back to the game: Miami got the win they desperately needed, pushing them to 3-6 ahead of winnable contests versus the Raiders and Patriots. It marks a crucial step forward if you're rostering Achane, Tyreek, and/or Jaylen Waddle. However, this offense remains underwhelming considering the top-level talent. Waddle had two catches for 55 yards on the opening drive. He saw only four more targets, reeling in one for two yards.
Perhaps this team has one more golden opportunity to produce juggernaut-like offensive numbers (against Vegas) before the fantasy playoffs, when they'll play @Houston, San Francisco, and @Cleveland. It's getting easiest to bench someone like Waddle, but it shouldn't be that easy for a guy who a few months ago became the fifth-highest-paid WR.
Also notable: Jaylen Wright had five carries, while Mostert had none (though in fairness, he had two receptions). Wright had a five-yard run, and then compiled negative-2 yards on his other four attempts. I wouldn't dock him too much for the poor numbers. Achane averaged only 3.1 YPC. It was tough sledding on the ground, and Wright entered the night netting 5.0 YPC. He's still an okay bet to become fantasy viable in December.
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