A reminder that if you want to reach me anytime day or night via text to talk through waivers, lineups, etc., sign up below. It's a dollar a day. I respond usually within a few minutes and am almost always available for back-and-forth discussions. This is a critically important fantasy period for many of you. If you want to use me more than usual, I'm here.
---
A bunch of normally must-start players have been unreliable lately. Suddenly questions like "Do I start Justin Jefferson or Darnell Mooney" aren't so strange. Here's one player from each core position and what we might expect these final weeks.
Some don't think of Jordan Love as a "must-start" QB. But he was the QB6 in points per game last season (18.8) and averaged 20.6 in his first five contests this season. Since then, he's been sub-middling or worse in three of four games. Notably he's attempted 23 or fewer throws in three of those. In other words, game scripts and an overpowering Josh Jacobs have combined to limit Love's usage and, by extension, effectiveness.
The problem is that five of his final six matchups are against above-average pass defenses. Detroit is yielding the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points per game, while Miami (third-fewest) and Chicago (second-fewest) might pose even bigger challenges. Love is a risky bet to return to consistent production.
At running back, Jonathan Taylor shook off a weak season opener, looking mostly like a top-10 RB in his next four games, thanks in large part to efficient running, scoring opportunities, and solid passing-game productivity. But in one of those head-turning statistical oddity, after netting 32 receiving yards in Week 2, his aerial yardage has dipped each successive contest, culminating in a zero last weekend.
Keep in mind, inconsistent QB play and tough run defenses (Minnesota and Detroit) haven't helped. None of his final five opponents have strong run D's. Four of those matchups are quite winnable, meaning Indy realistically could still finish with a winning record, putting them in play for a postseason berth. I think the Colts will make adjustments after losing four of five, putting more weight on Taylor to carry the team, or at minimum co-carry with Anthony Richardson. I'm expecting more work through the air and a much better weekly floor.
A few weeks ago I suggested Jordan Addison was a rebound candidate in what would be a more open offense after T.J. Hockenson returned, and with the understanding that Addison's solitary touchdown in his first five games was a bit of an anomaly. Since then he's scored in three of four games, and sure enough Justin Jefferson has taken the biggest hit.
We all know this isn't a changing of the guard. Jefferson remains the team's WR1. He's coming off his worst performance in eons. At the same time, we should be at least modestly concerned that three of his final six matchups are against divisional rivals Green Bay, Detroit, and Chicago -- all among the top-6 stingiest defenses versus fantasy WRs. He should be a locked-in elite option these next two weeks against the Cardinals and Falcons. After that, he'll be more of a "I have to start him, but I'm a bit anxious" WR.
And at tight end, what do we do with Kyle Pitts? Honestly, I'm as confused as ever. My preseason TE1 looked the part in Weeks 5-8. He followed that up with one target, then six, then three. Mooney came out of nowhere (essentially) to lead Atlanta in receiving yards. Ray-Ray McCloud has been another surprise. Pitts is #5 on the team with 35 receptions, averaging less than one-tenth of a catch more per game than he did last year.
With few scoring opportunities and sporadic targets, he's simply not dependable enough to start in most leagues. Yeah, if you need a dart throw down the stretch, he's worth the risk given his upside. But he's suffered through too many clunkers to earn must-start status, even in 16-team leagues.
---