There's a marginally realistic scenario where tonight marks Aaron Rodgers' final game in a Jets uniform. A loss would push New York's record to a nearly unsalvageable 2-7. The ripple effect on Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams would be a fantasy tsunami. That doesn't mean they'd be irrelevant. But it would start the clock toward an almost inevitable "[So-and-so] is week-to-week with a [moderate] injury." We could no longer trust that those guys would be active for the fantasy playoffs.
So this evening is huge for anyone rostering Hall/Wilson/Adams. It's also fairly big for Superflexers rostering Rodgers. And for opposite reasons, it's huge for anyone stashing the 20-year-old Braelon Allen, who could be a top-10 RB down the stretch. If New York's heading toward defeat tonight, I'd advise e-mailing/texting whoever has Allen in your league and make an aggressive offer. Or do it now if you're feeling bullish.
As for Hall/Wilson/Adams, who knows whether to sell, because so much depends not only on how tonight goes, but also what you're willing to get in return. It's like keeping Tyreek Hill in recent weeks, not knowing if Tua definitely would return. Some managers dumped Tyreek for some middling fraction of his max value. You'll need to decide whether bailing/hedging is a better bet than holding on and hoping they finish out the season.
Of course, a Jets victory defers this question to later weeks, rendering much of the above moot (for now). By halftime we'll probably have a pretty good sense of where things are headed.
As for specifics, on Sunday some talking heads were confused that Allen touched the ball 12 times. This community knows better. In Sunday-Thursday games, we often see either (a) the starting RB overworked, or (b) the handcuff overworked. Hall had a healthy 17 touches, suggesting he's primed for a comparably full (or even more full) workload tonight. That should equate to a reduced role for Allen . . . unless the Jets win in a cakewalk and Allen mops up late.
For Houston, Stefon Diggs' season-ending injury and Nico Collins' return create challenges for managers seeking clear-cut decisions. Collins is a must-start when healthy; will he be eased back in? Probably a full go, but that's the risk. Tank Dell should be fine . . . except the Jets' D is yielding the fewest WR fantasy points in the league. It's actually not even close. They're giving up 21.34 points per game. The next-best defense (Carolina) is surrendering 26.05. So betting on Collins, Dell, C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz, etc. requires a bit of a leap of faith. Houston's offense has been just north of middling most of the year.
On the ground, Joe Mixon is coming off a 29-touch performance. Not good. It's actually the third time in five games where he's had 27+. Historically (going back to 2013), 67% of 25+ touch Sunday RBs have endured dramatic declines in Thursday touches and fantasy points.
Despite my warnings at the outset, I've got the Jets winning 26-9. They'll either come out swinging or come out drooping. I'm going with the former. Leave your prediction below.
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