When the Patriots drafted Kevin O'Connell in the third round of the 2008 draft, it marked the first time they'd selected a QB before the fourth round since 1993. He competed that summer with Matt Cassel for the #2 job behind Tom Brady. Had he won that battle, he might have been a 15-game starter, as Brady was knocked out for the season in Week 1. Instead, O'Connell languished behind Cassel, fared poorly the following summer, and was promptly cut before the start of the 2009 season.
O'Connell's abbreviated NFL career gave him an earlier path to coaching, which started at age 30, when the Browns named him their QB coach. That Cleveland team was atrocious on many levels. Despite having a deficit of playmakers, Josh McCown had what ended up being his third-best statistical season. Johnny Manziel played better than this year's version of Deshaun Watson. O'Connell left after one season, and the Browns' QBs -- including McCown -- were markedly worse that next year.
Tonight's contest pits Minnesota against O'Connell's former team -- or at least, remnants of his former team. His Vikings look exceptional at most key playmaking positions, and they're about to get T.J. Hockenson back. This has the makings of a strong fantasy second half for Darnold, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Hock.
Getting into the weeds, the Rams' D has been generous to opposing quarterbacks and receivers. But they're yielding the league's fewest RB fantasy points, including the second-fewest RB receiving yards.
What might this mean for Jones? On the one hand, probably nothing to worry about. He had "only" 17 touches on Sunday. He can still see a regular bell cow workload tonight. Four other times he's done the Sunday-Thursday thing. In three of those cases, he averaged fewer points per touch on Thursday. Spanning 2013 (when I started tracking Sunday-Thursday RBs) to today, points per touch is essentially identical whether these RBs play on Sunday or Thursday. So Jones's declines in three out of four instances might be something. Still, it's a small sample size.
I'm more concerned about how the Vikes handle Jones the rest of the way. His 30th birthday is around the corner. They recent acquired Cam Akers. Load management could be a thing. If he has only 12-14 touches tonight, it wouldn't be shocking.
So if you're loaded at RB, I'd think twice about starting him, because I believe his realistic ceiling is pretty low (around 15 fantasy points).
For L.A., the big story is Cooper Kupp's return. The other big story is the team's reported interest in unloading him before the trade deadline. This could be his final game in a Rams uniform, and it could also show would-be playoff-bound suitors that he can still be a difference-maker. Assuming he's good to go, I think he needs to be in fantasy lineups.
His only other seemingly must-start teammate is, of course, Kyren Williams. The young RB has been the offensive focal point and is on pace for 368 touches. It's a little concerning. Maybe a little more than "a little." While Kupp's return could open up the backfield, Williams' struggles might not be correctable this season.
Struggles? How can that be? He's the overall RB5. And yet, he's working harder for his points. His average yards before first contact are down compared to 2023. So are his yards *after* first contact. He's breaking tackles at a pace less than half his 2023 clip. Volume and touchdowns can continue to carry him. But since he's not very active in the passing game, his floor is much lower than his impressive numbers suggest. And coming off a 21-touch performance Sunday, I think his floor will be more visible tonight.
Final score prediction: Vikings win 29-22. Leave your prediction below.
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