As we get ready for today's contests, keep in mind that the Jets and Texans play again on Thursday. I'm expecting to see more of Braelon Allen today; if not -- if Breece Hall dominates touches -- it should signal more work for Allen later this week. This makes Breece a bit riskier than he'd normally be on a Sunday, as it's hard to gauge whether the Jets will have the luxury (a big lead) or the commitment (trusting Allen) to ease up on their bell cow's workload.
For Houston's Joe Mixon, it's another cloudy prediction. In his last two Sunday-Thursday outings, his touch count was 15 and then 28, followed by 13 and then 21. In other words, he was held back on Sunday before being unleashed on Thursday. These are also stats in a vacuum, as circumstances are unique for this Houston squad, which has no clear backup RB and a great shot at claiming a 3 or even 2 seed for the playoffs. Will they ride Mixon as much as possible rack up wins, or will they give Dameon Pierce and/or Dare Ogunbowale more run? What happens today will help inform what happens later this week.
Finally, keep in mind that a bunch of NFL trades could go down this next week. If a star on a bad team gets limited reps, it *might* signal something different than game script or an injury. Consider the outside chance that Chuba Hubbard takes a backseat to Miles Sanders as Carolina looks to send Hubbard elsewhere. Or Cleveland unloading one of their remaining stars.
These are largely unspoken risks. Yet they need to be acknowledged as possibilities as teams run out of time to secure value for guys they might not want or be able to keep after January.
Good luck today. And remember, if you want to text with me in real time on Sunday mornings or any other time, sign up below.
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