Alvin Kamara is a fantasy focal point this morning for all the worst reasons. In some ways, his descent was entirely expected. I wrote about this in September, urging managers to sell high on the supposedly "elite" RB who was on pace for 2,306 offensive yards heading into Week 4.
But the steep degree of his descent was not expected at all. It happened in part because the Saints' other four most important playmakers all got hurt. While check-downs keep him relevant in PPR, there's not much more to hope for until, at minimum, Derek Carr returns.
And yet, even when Carr returns, what will he return to? This franchise has two more games until the NFL trade deadline. They're 2-5 and (barring a modest surprise) headed for 2-6 after next week's contest vs. the Chargers in L.A. Kamara's value could spike if he's sent to the right team -- particularly if a playoff contender loses their starting RB. For example, if Joe Mixon were still sidelined, Houston would have been an ideal short-term landing spot for a guy who can still post elite numbers.
The sad part (or one of many sad parts) is that the Saints had one of the easiest 2024 schedules. On paper, a majority of their remaining matchups are very winnable. And this is where predictions go out the window. Kamara's regression seemed inevitable. But *this* much of a regression could happen only if the rest of the offense collapsed.
And now managers have to contend with (or capitalize on) the arrival of Kendre Miller. A third-round pick last year, Miller didn't look ready as a rookie, though injuries helped explain why. And entering last month, things looked a bit bleak. But he still served as a possible future bell cow for whenever Kamara hangs up his cleats (or moves elsewhere). That future might be as soon as November, especially if New Orleans throws in the towel. With Carr under center and Chris Olave back, a backfield comprised of Miller and the aging Jamaal Williams would likely lean heavily on Miller to see if he's "the guy" for 2025. Last week was a golden opportunity for managers to roster him. This coming week, he'll cost considerably more. By November it might be too late.
For Denver, Javonte Williams keeps stepping up when he needs to, remaining atop the depth chart. It's still a week-to-week situation, and yet momentum matters. He's looked fantastic in three of his last four games. The Broncos won those three games. He has the highest floor and ceiling in his backfield. The challenge is not knowing if/when Audric Estime will look too impressive to hold back. So far the rookie has looked the part. And it's still early. The production pecking order appears to be Williams, then Estime, then Jaleel McLaughlin. But Estime is the best value play going forward -- little to lose acquiring him, and a lot to gain.
And what happened to Courtland Sutton? Game script was a factor. But there's more to it. Sutton had 10 TD catches last season. That's why he was a streamer, despite a relatively muted 59-772 receiving line in 16 games. He was the overall WR35. By comparison, teammate Jerry Jeudy was the WR50 with a 54-758-2 receiving line in 16 games. Nearly identical receptions and yards. The difference between playability and benchability was whether they scored. As it turns out, Sutton was 5x more likely to score.
This year, Sutton has been unplayable in four of the five contests when he hasn't scored. That's a huge yellow flag for any fantasy option. If they need a touchdown to keep their floor above water, they're officially risky. The problem for managers is that Denver won't be selling at the trade deadline. Sutton isn't headed to a team with a top-20 passer. He's "stuck" on a team with a balanced offense and pretty strong defense. It's rough reality for those needing him to be the alpha.
And congrats to Gary Beardmore for picking the closest score (31-13 Denver). He was one of the few who predicted a convincing Broncos victory. He deserves our respect, at least until next Thursday.
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