New Orleans outscored their first two opponents 91-29. Since that blistering start, most realistic worst-case scenarios have become reality. They blew a five-point lead with a minute left in Game 3 against Philly. The following week, Younghoe Koo kicked a game-winning 58-yard field goal with two seconds left. The following week, Derek Carr and Taysom Hill were knocked out. Then last week they lost Chris Olave after two plays and were outscored 27-0 in the second half.
Olave is still hurt. So are Carr and Hill. Rashid Shaheed has joined them on the sidelines. Really, this past month has been mind-numbingly unfortunate for a franchise that appeared poised to compete for the NFC South title.
Now rookie Bub Means, journeyman Cedrick Wilson, and mainstay Juwan Johnson will anchor a passing attack led by fifth-round rookie QB Spencer Rattler. I have long (probably errantly) believed that if Rattler's name were Bill Smith, he would've dropped to the sixth round or later. I mean, who wouldn't want a Spencer Rattler on their team?
With Denver CB Pat Surtain expected to sit tonight, the Saints might have a small opening. Still, the Broncos' D has the second-most sacks (22). They also have one of the best run defenses in terms of yards per carry. A lot more could go wrong for New Orleans than right.
That leaves the backfield, which I expect them to lean on heavily -- probably to the tune of roughly 40 touches. Alvin Kamara is the only obvious must-start, while Means and Johnson are reasonable flyers. keep an eye on Kendre Miller, who's expected to make his 2024 debut after a forgettable rookie campaign. Miller remains an intriguing hold for the fantasy playoffs.
As for the surprisingly decent 3-3 Broncos, rookie Bo Nix is building confidence and momentum at an ideal time. Their next six contests after tonight are against Carolina, Baltimore, Kansas City, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Cleveland. That's four very winnable games before their Week 14 bye. A victory tonight could (shockingly) set them on a path for an 8-5 record heading into the final stretch.
Courtland Sutton remains the alpha receiver. His 47 looks dwarf the team's next-highest target total (Josh Reynolds' 19). Troy Franklin appears poised to break out, depending on Nix's development. The rookie WR commanded 65% of Denver's offensive snaps last week -- more than double anything he's seen previously. Deep-leaguers with thin WR corps might benefit from having a team's potential rest-of-season #2 wideout.
On the ground, who knows. Rookie Audric Estime could hurt Jaleel McLaughlin more than Javonte Williams. Or maybe Williams is on the hot seat. He's earned only nine touches in three of six games. His floor is too low to trust most weeks, and I'm struggling to trust him tonight.
Final score prediction: Saints win 19-13. Leave your prediction below.
---