Last night's MNF matchups couldn't have looked more different. Arizona vs. the L.A. Chargers featured 116 offensive plays culminating in 721 offensive yards and two TDs. Only one offensive player scored 18+ points. No notable serious injuries.
Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore featured only 11 more offensive plays, but with outsized impacts across fantasy leagues: 989 offensive yards, nine TDs, seven offensive players with 18+ points, . . . and two potentially serious injuries.
Statistically, one of the most fascinating outcomes was the fact that three teams' highest-scoring performers were tight ends. And for the fourth team, Mark Andrews fell just two points shy of leading Baltimore's receivers. That's downright bizarre given the context: Thru seven weeks, only two TEs are averaging more than 12.2 points per game. The last time that happened thru a full season was 2006.
The injuries probably the biggest stories. I've written a lot about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin over the years, and this summer I suggested that they don't receive enough credit for elevating their quarterbacks, sharing on July 26th, "Jameis Winston had career years throwing to Evans and, eventually, Godwin. Tom Brady lit it up for two years throwing to that tandem. Three of Brady's seven highest-yardage seasons came in a Bucs uniform, often leaning on Evans and Godwin. Ryan Fitzpatrick posted impressive yardage and TD totals spot-starting for this team . . . thanks in part to Evans and Godwin. Mike Glennon was his best statistically (on a per-game basis) in 2014, when Evans was a rookie."
Baker Mayfield is the overall QB2, and it's not even close (he's scored 16% more points than the QB3). Yet he is one of many Tampa Bay quarterbacks who, arguably, has benefited more from his exceptional WR tandem than nearly any other QB. Not saying Mayfield isn't good or even great. And I'm firmly saying that without Evans and Godwin, he probably can't sustain top-16 numbers. Few quarterbacks could. And that's the point. If Evans and Godwin miss significant time (and things look rougher for Godwin as of early this morning), the only "winner" would be Cade Otton, who could become a weekly must-start TE.
There's no obvious "next-man-up" WR. Third-round rookie Jalen McMillan is the most intriguing, basically because he's the biggest unknown. He'd compete with 2023 sixth-rounder Trey Palmer, end-of-the-line journeyman Sterling Shepard, and probably whoever Tampa Bay would sign to backfill for the loss of at least one star receiver. Maybe the mostly faded Julio Jones returns. Or low-ceiling 2022 teammate Russell Gage. Or this franchise -- desperate for a Hail Mary signing -- reaches for Michael Thomas.
Barring a trade, there are no exciting options. One realistic scenario has Godwin out for the season and Evans returning in the coming weeks. That would almost certainly prop up Evans' value, leaving very little for anyone else (besides Otton). In the coming days/hours we'll have more clarity. But my main takeaway is that I wouldn't spend big FAAB (waiver funds) on McMillan quite yet, unless you have FAAB to burn.
Elsewhere, Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to wallow in a conservative offense. He's a fantastic buy-low in dynastic, but I'm no longer trying to buy low in re-draft. His floor is too low, and as long as Arizona keeps competing, it's hard to imagine them dramatically shifting approaches.
Meanwhile, this summer I ranked Rashod Bateman 65 spots ahead of his overall-199-ADP for all the reasons we saw yesterday, and more. In July I called him the x-factor in this offense. He was a must-draft in nearly all leagues. Remember, he's not just some #2 WR. He's a 24-year-old former first-round pick who's struggled with injuries. Now he's the WR37 in points per game, only 1.1 points behind Zay Flowers. This remains a tough offense to figure out, and Bateman is a key reason why.
What can be said about the Chargers? At the start of last season, their offense appeared poised for dominance, or at least something close to it. Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and touted rookie Quentin Johnston. Now we have Justin Herbert throwing 39 times for 349 scoreless yards. 198 of those yards went to Will Dissly, Simi Fehoko, Jalen Reagor, and Stone Smartt. Not inspiring. It also marked Herbert's 43rd career 240+ yard performance -- and only the second time in those 43 starts that he hasn't thrown for a touchdown.
Finally, back to the Bucs: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker. I've been on the Irving train since the preseason and remain on it. While White enjoyed bigger numbers, Irving was somewhere between the #2 and the co-#1. Tucker was a not-so-distant third, suggesting this backfield remains highly fluid. Irving's massive usage through the air in college hasn't quite carried over in the pros. But give it time . . .
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