On Sunday I highlighted the Sunday-Thursday RB regression trend and its statistical companion, the Sunday-Thursday RB inverted regression. Sometimes RBs are overworked on Sunday, giving their handcuffs more value heading into Thursday. Other times RBs are underworked on Sunday, resting them (a bit) ahead of Thursday.
In the former example, Kenneth Walker and Jordan Mason would have earned their normal sizable workload Sunday, opening the door for bigger roles for Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo tonight. But since Seattle and San Francisco were both touchdown favorites at home over their Sunday opponents, I assumed it would be a golden opportunity for each team to play those handcuffs more than usual.
Instead, both heavy favorites lost. Geno Smith had to throw it 40 times, leaving Walker with more catches (seven) than rushing attempts (five), and Charbonnet with only five total touches. Similarly, Brock Purdy threw it more than usual, attempting 35 passes -- just two shy of his career high. Mason managed a healthy 14 runs (and one catch), while Guerendo mustered only five carries.
That means Walker and Mason should be in pretty good shape for tonight. Neither was overworked. Among the backups, Charbonnet remains higher on the pecking order than Guerendo. But it would take something surprising for either handcuff to make noise.
Both teams' passing defenses are comparable, at least statistically. Smith and Purdy are both good bets for 17+ points, and I would expect the 2-3 Niners to make adjustments for a quarterback who hasn't been as productive lately. In his last seven regular season games, Purdy has thrown eight TD passes and eight interceptions. He's never been a high-volume passer, so timely touchdowns have been a critically important part of his fantasy success.
Among receivers, Brandon Aiyuk finally got going, and George Kittle has been better than I expected. This receiving corps remains a bit of a cluster thanks to Jauan Jennings. On any given night, it could be Deebo Samuel's turn. Or Jennings again. Or a new combination. The simple sit-start answer is that Aiyuk, Deebo, and Kittle are all easily startable in deeper leagues, while Jennings is one of those risky flyers to weigh only if bye weeks and injuries are crushing you.
For Seattle, Tyler Lockett remains relevant. Didn't expect that this "late" into the season. Thought he'd fade quickly behind DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Why are all three still relevant? Because Geno leads the NFL with 199 pass attempts. Alongside the little-used Noah Fant, there's enough room for those three WRs to step up. Unfortunately, it also means each guy is capping the ceiling of the other two. Metcalf remains the alpha, and I would argue that JSN is #2. Lockett is a sell-high in deep leagues (I doubt managers would care to acquire him in shallow leagues).
Congrats to Lazy Daze for winning last Thursday's low-key closest-score competition. Brilliant 36-30 prediction. I've got San Francisco winning tonight 31-23. Leave your prediction below.
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