It's easy to discard Patrick Mahomes' fantasy struggles. Two of his three preseason starting WRs are hurt, as well as his dynamic bell cow running back. He's doing the best he can under the circumstances, right? So give him a break.
On the other hand, his struggles have persisted all season, even when Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco were on the field. That's not to say it's all been his fault. The pick he threw last night could've/should've been caught for a touchdown, which might have resulted in a 20-point fantasy night instead of the roughly 14 he ended up with.
But his slide (if we can call it a "slide") began last season, when he threw a career-high 14 interceptions and a career-low 1.7 TD passes per game. His 1.7 sacks per game also was a career-high. Again, many factors at play. And yet, five weeks into this season he has six passing TDs and six interceptions, a new career-high sack rate, a career-low 4.0 yards per carry, etc.
Last night was his 120th start (including the playoffs), and only the seventh time he hasn't found the end zone. Rice's potential later-season return should help. But it goes beyond Rice.
One of the strangest stats -- and a pretty compelling one -- is that he averaged 9.1 air yards per pass during his 2018 breakout. That figure has dropped in each successive year: 8.8 (2019), 8.4 (2020), 7.3 (2021), 7.2 (2022), 6.5 (2023), and 5.6 (2024, thru Week 4 -- still waiting on Week 5 air-yard data). One might conclude that he's operating more and more conservatively, leading to more muted numbers on balance.
The days of Mahomes being elite surely aren't over. However, it's unclear when/how he can turn things around -- or even if this team thinks he needs to turn things around. KC is 5-0. Their defense has held each opposing starting RB to 3.5 YPC or less. Alvin Kamara mustered 2.4 YPC yesterday. The week before JK Dobbins had 2.3. The week before that, Bijan Robinson had 1.9. The Chiefs can win even if Mahomes operates as more of a glorified game manager. It was nice to see him hit 331 passing yards Monday, and it's also the first time he's topped 305 passing yards in his last 15 regular season outings. If big games are becoming more the exception than the rule, Mahomes is (somehow) merely a streamer.
Elsewhere, Kareem Hunt got it done on 27 carries. None of his runs went for more than eight years. As long as he keeps grinding, Carson Steele and Samaje Perine aren't even rosterable in shallow leagues. Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster were the other offensive heroes. On a fully healthy roster, JuJu might have fetched only one target, while Kelce (as we saw earlier this season) might have been hit-or-miss.
For New Orleans, Derek Carr's injury could become a minor fantasy earthquake. If backup Jake Haener has to start Sunday against Tampa Bay, it'll obviously be difficult to trust Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. As for Olave, I'm not sweating his dud. He had three straight 80+ yard performances and was dealing with a hamstring injury last week. The question is whether he can be a top-20 WR. His TD potential is too low to be a must-start option. I need to reset expectations, with the understanding that Shaheed has gone toe-to-toe, and at times has more outplayed him. As the unquestioned alpha, Olave was a safe fantasy WR. But that isn't the case anymore.
Finally, Kamara's targets/receptions keep elevating his floor. That said, he's slowed since the opening two weeks. You know how I feel about him: extraordinarily talented, and also still a sell-high RB.
---