The last time Aaron Rodgers threw for 300+ yards was Week 14 of the 2021 season. That was 30 games ago . . . and counting. In a spread-the-ball offense, we might be concerned about his receivers. But recently his eyes have locked in on two guys: Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. The former is on pace for 190 targets. The latter is on pace for 113. Both would be career highs.
Now, Tyler Conklin was nicked up heading into this one, so we might discard his poor showing as an injury-related fluke. And Mike Williams entered the contest with 13 targets in his previous three outings.
But it would make sense for Rodgers to focus on (a) one of the league's best young WRs, and (b) Rodgers' longtime teammate. I wrote a couple years ago -- Rodgers' final year in Green Bay -- about how historically his passing attacks have been among the NFL's most top-heavy. We *might* be seeing the same thing happen in New York -- a consolidation of production that should make fantasy managers' decision-making a little easier.
On the ground, Breece Hall finally went over 62 rushing yards. He's on pace for 96 targets. It's a reminder that at his best (or even near his best), Hall can be elite even if he doesn't score. It's also a reminder that Braelon Allen isn't remotely challenging Hall's place atop the depth chart. The rookie's touches have dropped continually in recent weeks. He's the same fantastic handcuff, and is also the same risky deep-league streamer.
For Buffalo, Ray Davis finally broke loose in his first NFL start. All the more impressively, he did it against a good run defense. This is one reason why I faded James Cook this summer. Davis has three years of college bell cow experience. Cook entered the league with no bell cow experience. Davis has a legitimate shot at establishing a timeshare with Cook. Maybe not next week, but I think it's more a matter of "when," not "if."
And Dalton Kincaid: You know my views on him. Major preseason bargain. Pushed him as a buy-low TE after a slow start to the season. He led Buffalo with seven targets. Yes, Dawson Knox got the score. But Kincaid remains a top-10 TE with elite upside in an offense whose alpha receiver (Khalil Shakir) isn't a true alpha.
Speaking of Shakir, he's doing so many things right, including catching 20 of his 21 targets this year. And yet, targets are a good indicator of a receiver's floor and ceiling. Shakir generally needs a TD to be a must-start wideout. That's pretty rare for true #1 WRs. I'm not saying he's unstartable. He's simply a high-risk start, because 4-5 targets per game leave little room for error.
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