On that final pass of the night, Kirk Cousins became the 25th player to throw for 500+ yards in a game. Interestingly, the only other Falcon to throw for 500+ was Matt Ryan (503) exactly eight years and one day earlier. In that game, Ryan threw four TD passes and one pick -- just like Cousins last night. And that 2016 campaign turned out to be the best statistical season of Ryan's career. We'll see if last night marks a turning point for the not-yet-finished Cousins.
And because big numbers are more interesting than small numbers, I examined the other 24 500+ passing-yard performances. It turns out last night was the first time a 500+ yard passer fed 5+ receivers for 60+ yards each. This was supposed to be (I thought) one of the league's most top-heavy offenses. And sure, Drake London's late injury (he should be fine) opened the door for KhaDarel Hodge's heroics. At nearly 30 years old, it was only his second career touchdown. A fluke of sorts, although the way he ran suggested he's been underutilized for years.
Cousins was the big fantasy winners Thursday because he finally looked like his 2023 self. The concern -- if there is any -- is that Darnell Mooney led the team with 16 targets and Ray-Ray McCloud was #3 with nine looks. Cousins aired it out 58 times. All of those receiver numbers look great, unless we compress them to a more "normal" 33-35 passes for 240-260 yards. We can't assume Mooney and McCloud (great name for a detective show) will simply fade into the background. While London is in great shape with 44 targets through five games, Mooney (40) is going toe-to-toe, and McCloud (31) isn't far behind considering he's the #3 WR.
Then there's Kyle Pitts. How many of you benched him? How many of you *dropped* him? He was my preseason TE1, but this week I threw up my hands and acknowledged that impatient managers were entirely justified throwing in the towel. He's averaging 8.4 yards per target. That's up from 7.4 last season and 6.0 in 2022. My original theory was that, by playing with by far the best QB of his young career, Pitts would generate more looks, more yards, and more touchdowns. Even slight upticks in each would put him in position to ascend to the elite tier.
Well now, quite suddenly, he's the TE10 in fantasy points per game. He's within striking distance of the top 6. What does he need? Ideally Cousins breaking the single-season pass-attempt record. More realistically, he needs something at or above the average 6.5 targets he earned as a 2021 rookie. He's currently only at 4.6. If that number keeps rising -- and I think it will -- Pitts will be just fine.
On the ground, it seems inexplicable that Bijan Robinson has only one score, and he's not doing enough through the air to outrun his "great streaming RB" label. It's inexplicable in some ways, because all five of Atlanta's games have been decided by one score. It's not like negative game scripts are pushing Robinson to the sidelines. His 17 touches per contest are reasonable, putting him on pace for 289. The problem is that without semi-consistent scoring and/or significant air yards, he'll remain perhaps the most talented non-top-20 fantasy RB.
On the other side of the field, Tampa Bay's receiving corps looked as predictable as ever -- something managers can appreciate. We can almost bank on the probability that Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin will score in most games, and Cade Otton's floor seems pretty secure, sustaining his streamer value.
Meanwhile, managers must have been ecstatic when Baker Mayfield stood at 17.1 fantasy points late in the second quarter. But in the second half he collected only 6.3 points. Still outstanding, and also a bit of "what-might-have-been" syndrome. He's been heating up these past two outings. Notably, in two games where he was sacked 3+ times (five in Week 2 and seven in Week 3), he averaged only 174 passing yards and 1.5 scores. In his other three games, Mayfield's averaged 272 passing yards and 3.3 scores. In seven contests last year with 3+ sacks, he was bad-to-middling in six of them. I shared yesterday that Atlanta's D had the NFL's fewest sacks. They got to him only once, so it makes sense that Mayfield could capitalize on the mismatch.
Lastly, Bucky Irving's momentum reversed. Didn't expect this, but there you have it: Rachaad White split touches and finally looked better -- especially when Irving lost a fumble that might have cost them the win. I'm still higher on Irving, and also have to acknowledge that White did what he needed to do to remain relevant, if no the de facto starter, for at least another week.
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