Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield last faced off in Week 1 last season, when they combined for 517 passing yards and four touchdowns on 78 throws. They kept airing it out, in part, because their backfields were limited to only 96 scoreless yards on 38 carries.
Tonight, both QBs enjoy better backfields. But Cousins is enduring his worst campaign since 2014 in Washington, when first-year head coach Jay Gruden couldn't decide between him, Robert Griffin III, or Colt McCoy. These days, Cousins seems to be limited in the supposed aftermath of his recovery from a torn Achilles. His back leg needs be strong/stable to generate power on his throws. After one month, it appears he's still on the mend. The question, then, is how patient this team will be with rookie Michael Penix waiting in the wings.
Cousins' relative struggles impact every fantasy player. Kyle Pitts has regressed even more than he regressed last season. Drake London is collecting the fewest yards-per-reception of his career despite being targeted more than ever. And Bijan Robinson has been more effectively contained, averaging merely 1.9 yards before first contact compared to 2.7 last season. His other advanced metrics -- yards after first contact, broken-tackle rate, catch rate, etc. -- are all up compared to 2023. But he has less room to maneuver, meaning he has to work harder to match last year's efficiency.
As many of you know, I was all in on Atlanta this summer in the belief Cousins would return to pre-injury form by Week 1 or shortly thereafter -- and that if he had a setback, Penix would still be a clear improvement over last year's debacle. The opposite has happened. While London barely skates by, Robinson is a bust, and Pitts is almost droppable.
The Bucs' defense might be the antidote. *Might* be. Despite a middling pass rush, and despite opponents averaging the fourth-most throws against them, Tampa Bay's D has surrendered only one passing TD. Beating them almost necessitates pounding the ball on the ground, where they're yielding 5.0 yards per carry and the third-most TDs (seven).
If Atlanta can even moderately contain the Bucs' offense, this should be get-right game for Robinson. It also makes Tyler Allgeier a reasonable desperation flyer, with the understanding the glorified handcuff likely needs to score to exceed six points.
As for Tampa Bay's offense, each week I've pushed Bucky Irving and urged managers to trade away Rachaad White. We're now seemingly at a breaking point. If Irving takes over tonight (and does well), then it's probably his backfield, with White serving in an as-needed complementary role. My best bet is that Irving will more than double White's fantasy production tonight.
Through the air, it's the same as it's been for years: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and with Cade Otton finally getting going after two miserable outputs to start the season. I picked up Otton and am starting him in place of Sam LaPorta (bye week). He's as decent a flyer as any non-top-5 TE this week. Baker should be fine against a defense giving up the second-highest completion percentage and a league-worst four sacks. Of course, it's Thursday night, so we should brace for at least a couple of shocks.
Final score prediction: Falcons win 23-22. Leave your prediction below.
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