If you're looking for a couple of deep RB flyers today, consider Zach Charbonnet and rookie Isaac Guerendo. The first might seem obvious; the second might seem insane.
As some/many of you know, I track regression tendencies for Sunday RBs who then play four days later (Thursday). Regression is not guaranteed and is not always sizable. But it's an issue, especially for running backs who carry heavy Sunday loads.
But some head coaches apparently adjust their approach on the Sunday before a Thursday game, feeding their lead back a little less than usual to presumably keep them fresher for later in the week. That opens the door for the backup to get more reps.
The Seahawks and Niners are both seven-point favorites today. They *should* win, and there's a decent chance they'll win by double digits. Their looming NFC West battle on Thursday already has playoff implications. So there's a high probability that Kenneth Walker's customary workload (currently 19 touches per game) will be scaled back, equating to 10+ touches for Charbonnet.
Meanwhile, the 49ers' Jordan Mason leads the league with 91 carries. He's averaging 24.3 touches. It's unlikely that he'll reach 20, and I believe he'll fall short of 18. Despite a rough start to his career, Guerendo is a reasonable dart throw for those deciding between, say, Cam Akers and Dameon Pierce. If he doesn't see work, it'll probably mean Deebo Samuel gets more run on the ground. But Guerendo has a few things going for him -- including my belief that head coach Kyle Shanahan will limit Mason's workload ahead of Thursday.
I have more family commitments later this morning, so my availability will be spotty during the two hours before the opening kickoff. Good luck today, and of course ping me / this community if you want to bounce anything around.
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