We're now in the first weeks with byes. Four teams are off. "Only" 12 games tomorrow. As always, here's the most important fantasy storyline I'm tracking for each team:
Vikings -- Minnesota's thrown the fifth fewest passes this season. Of course, that leads us to Sam Darnold. If there's an ounce of concern (we have to be contrarian when circumstances call for it), it's that he's averaging a TD pass every 9.6 throws. When Peyton Manning set the single-season TD pass record (55) in 2013, he averaged a score every 12.0 throws. Darnold's pace *seems* to be unsustainable. Unless he's forced to throw a lot more, we should expect some regression.
Jets -- And interestingly, entering Week 5 teams passed on the Vikings more than any other opponent, thanks to a 14.2-point scoring differential that's forced squads to play catch-up. With the Jets in the running for Davante Adams, this might be the last chance managers can "sell high" on Garrett Wilson. A poor performance from Wilson could box managers into a corner. A great performance could help anxious managers unload him at a half-decent price.
Bears -- D'Andre Swift finally broke out last week. He also touched the ball on 42% of Chicago's offensive plays. That's not remotely sustainable, and it came at the expense of the team's four core receivers. For this and many other reasons, I'd sell high on Swift before Sunday. And if he does it again, I'll eat my words.
Panthers -- Once again, Xavier Legette is one of the most intriguing mostly-off-the-radar fantasy WRs. Diontae Johnson might not be at 100%, and regardless, Legette is legit on a team with limited talented pass catchers.
Bengals -- Can Chase Brown again outperform Zack Moss and generate clear distance between them?
Ravens -- No Baltimore player is on pace for 710+ receiving yards. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are the only "safe" fantasy starters these days.
Patriots -- Rhamondre Stevenson has been a sell-high RB for weeks. Now there's buzz that Antonio Gibson could supplant him as the 1A. Tomorrow is pivotal for both backs -- and for fantasy managers who rostered one of them.
Dolphins -- Can Jaylen Wright remain viable as this backfield gets healthier?
Commanders -- Jayden Daniels entered this week as the overall QB1 despite throwing for only three scores. He's completed 82.1% of his pass attempts. There's a path where he performs even better as the season progresses, and of course there's a path where he comes back to earth. Cleveland's D should be the biggest test of his young career.
Browns -- Deshaun Watson is 37th in air yards per attempt and 39th in straight-up passing yards per attempt. Among full-time starters during his final campaign in Houston, he was #1 in both categories. It's code red for managers clinging to the hope that he rebounds.
Jaguars -- How much can we trust Travis Etienne?
Colts -- Trey Sermon is on the verge of earning his first start since 2021, when he was a highly touted third-round rookie. Can he deliver at or above expectations?
Texans -- Once again (fifth time I'm writing this?), I firmly believe Houston's handcuff RB is not currently on their roster. For a plus offense, this has significant fantasy implications.
Bills -- There was a well-circulated report this summer from a beat reporter, who said, "Those expecting [Dalton] Kincaid to usurp the full-time role from Dawson Knox this year and push the veteran tight end into a backup may have their hopes dashed." I wrote in July that I disagreed, and that this report -- if heeded -- would needlessly steer managers wrong. Of course Kincaid is a more valued asset. Of course he'll get more looks. Of course he'll be more productive. And as his receiving yards have increased each week, we're starting to see the makings of a consistent streamer with top-6 upside.
Broncos -- Once again, is Courtland Sutton the only Denver player worth rostering, or can their backfield build off of last week's surprising (yet still modest) success?
Raiders -- A possible dress rehearsal of Davante Adams departs. All eyes should be on Jakobi Meyers and, in particular, 2023 third-rounder Tre Tucker.
49ers -- Many managers want/need clarity re: San Francisco's receivers. If 2021 seventh-round draft pick Jauan Jennings is suddenly fantasy viable, then the "big three" -- together for much of the past five years -- will probably keep underperforming to varying degrees.
Cardinals -- James Conner is on pace for a career-high 298 touches and has missed 3+ games in five of the past six years. None of this is new. Managers understand he's a higher-than-normal injury risk, and Trey Benson remains a must-roster handcuff.
Rams -- Until Cooper Kupp returns, this still appears to be Tutu Atwell vs. Jordan Whittington through the air. Matthew Stafford attempted 49 passes in Week 1 but hasn't hit 30+ since. If this remains a run-friendly offense (for now), Atwell and Whittington will continue to cap each other's ceilings.
Packers -- There's a realistic scenario where Dontayvion Wicks finishes the season as Green Bay's #2 WR. He led the team in targets last week. Will be fascinating to see how Jordan Love distributes the bal tomorrow.
Seahawks -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a respectable 33 targets, but only 226 scoreless yards. The good news is that Tyler Lockett has been less effective. In fact, Geno Smith has an abysmal 59.6 QB rating when targeting Lockett (compared to 81.1 when targeting JSN). I'm still bullish about JSN as the season progresses.
Giants -- With Malik Nabers out, and Darius Slayton questionable, 2023 third-rounder Jalin Hyatt might get a shot at serviceable production behind Wan'Dale Robinson. If Hyatt starts and delivers, it could mark the beginning of a slight fantasy shake-up in what has been (so far) probably the league's most top-heavy WR corps.
Steelers -- Justin Fields has 43 TD passes in 42 career starts. It helps explain why George Pickens is the WR36 and one of only three top-48 WRs without a score.
Cowboys -- Again, Jalen Tolbert: Will he step up with Brandin Cooks sidelined, and might this signal an unofficial elevation to the #2 WR job?
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